‘Highly unpredictable’: How Trump’s obsession made Greenland’s election the most important in its history

Trump says he believes US will ‘get Greenland’ Photograph: (Reuters, Wion Web Team)
WION NEWS | Published March 9, 2025

Greenland heads to the polls on Tuesday in what is being called the most significant election in the Arctic island’s history. While issues such as education, healthcare, and independence remain central to the debate, one factor that has drawn international attention is US President Donald Trump’s determination to acquire Greenland “one way or the other”.

Denmark, which ruled Greenland as a colony until 1953 and still oversees its foreign and security policy, is watching closely, concerned about the potential loss of a key part of its kingdom.

Even before his second term began in January, Trump had revived his earlier ambitions, making it clear that he would not hesitate to take military action or impose tariffs if Denmark refused to cooperate. This has intensified global interest in Greenland’s elections.

Who are the two big contenders in the Greenland polls?
The election is mainly contested between two major political alliances, the coalition led by Greenland’s Prime Minister Múte Egede of Inuit Ataqatigiit, a democratic socialist and pro-independence party, and the opposition party Naleraq, which has been gaining ground with its strong push for independence and openness to US collaboration.

Political analysts say the race is too close to call. Naleraq’s rising popularity signals a shift in Greenland’s political mood, with some voters seeing Trump’s interest as an opportunity to negotiate better terms with Denmark or even accelerate Greenland’s path to independence.

Security concerns have also come into play, with politicians now requiring protection while campaigning, something unprecedented in Greenland’s elections. This political tension includes growing public anger revelations of the alleged mistreatment of Greenlanders by Denmark.

Every vote counts
With a small voting population of around 40,000, out of a total of 57,000 residents, every vote counts. While Trump’s comments triggered a crisis in Copenhagen, Greenlanders largely reacted with a mix of curiosity and optimism, thinking that the situation could be used to their advantage in negotiations.

“This election is where everyday politics collides with geopolitical questions over Trump,” said Rasmus Leander Nielsen, head of Nasiffik, the University of Greenland’s Centre for Foreign and Security Policy, told The Guardian.

He added, “We see different dynamics going in different directions, but also it’s very unpredictable what’s going to happen.”

“Now with heightened tensions, Greenland has pretty good cards in its hands and could make the argument that they need to do something different from the status quo,” he added.

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SOURCE: www.wionews.com

RELATED: China, Russia, U.S. Arctic competition looms over Greenland elections

Trump purchase remark spurs call for change in Danish territory, analysts say


A child plays beside election posters,ahead of the Greenlandic parliamentary elections in Nuuk, Greenland. © Reuters
NIKKEI ASIA | Published March 9, 2025

NUUK, Greenland — The Danish territory of Greenland is gearing up for parliamentary elections on Tuesday, a contest marked by growing calls for independence amid recent comments by U.S. President Donald Trump that he wants to buy the island.

Once a seldom discussed Arctic outpost, Greenland is emerging as a geopolitical hot spot where the U.S., China and Russia vie for influence.

Trump, wary of China and Russia’s actions in the region, has ambitions to buy Greenland. In its revised Arctic Strategy for 2024, the U.S. Defense Department expressed concern about strengthening cooperation between China and Russia there.

Global warming is also increasing the region’s value. Greenland’s land area is more than 80% covered by ice, but this is shrinking. According to a paper published in the scientific journal Nature last year, more than 5,000 square kilometers of ice cover was lost between 1985 and 2022.

As the melting continues, the rivalry between the U.S., China and Russia over underground resources such as rare-earth metals is expected to intensify.

In addition, ice covering the Arctic Ocean during winter has shrunk, extending the period that sea routes can be navigated. Analysts say the Arctic has become a flash point for conflict and competition between major powers.

In Greenland’s parliamentary elections, more than 200 candidates, primarily from the five parties currently holding seats, will compete for 31 seats.

According to a January poll by research institute Verian, the three pro-independence parties together received nearly 70% of the support, making them likely to hold a majority. Prime Minister Mute Bourup Egede, a member of the ruling Inuit Ataqatigiit party, has also expressed a desire for independence.

However, each party has a different position regarding the form and timing of independence. In any case, the election results will not immediately lead to independence. Consent of the Danish parliament is required in addition to approval by referendum among other hurdles.

Economically, the barriers to independence are high. According to the World Bank, Greenland’s gross domestic product, with fishing as the main industry, is $3.2 billion, less than 1% of Denmark’s. More than 50% of Greenland’s public revenue depends on Danish government subsidies.

“It’s good that the Danish government has woken up to the issue of Greenland’s independence,” a candidate said Friday in the capital Nuuk, on a cold, minus 10 C day.

“I’m strongly against Trump,” the candidate was careful to point out.

In the January poll, 85% of respondents said they did not want Greenland to be under U.S. sovereignty, as Trump has claimed without evidence. “Trump’s ideas are crazy,” a 50-year-old man in Nuuk told Nikkei.

Along with growing momentum for independence, small political parties that seek greater autonomy in cooperation with Copenhagen are also gaining support. The January opinion poll showed that support for the two parties that do not strongly advocate for independence approached 30%. This is an increase of more than 10 percentage points since the last parliamentary election in 2021.

Trump’s remarks have “strengthened public opinion that some kind of change is necessary, rather than maintaining the status quo,” said Takahashi Minori, associate professor at Hokkai-Gakuen University who studies Greenlandic politics at the Danish Institute of International Affairs.

 

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SOURCE: www.asia.nikkei.com

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