THE SPECTATOR | Published March 12, 2025
answered: will President Putin be interested in any sort of deal right now?
President Trump is convinced that Putin wants peace. But if the Russian leader really wants to bring his war to an end, will he do so on America’s terms, or wait until he has fulfilled one of his main objectives: the total subjugation of the four provinces in eastern Ukraine that he claimed he had annexed in the first seven months of the invasion?
At a ceremony in St George’s Hall at the Kremlin in September 2022, Putin declared that Russia now had four new regions – Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. The residents of these regions, he said, were ‘our citizens for ever’.
Even though the invading Russian troops had only partially occupied these regions, Putin made it clear he considered the annexations a fait accompli and demanded Kyiv agree to an immediate ceasefire.
Nearly 30 months later, Putin has still not won control over every scrap of land in these four regions. For example, Russian troops have failed to hold on to the cities of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.
Kherson, a gateway to Moscow-annexed Crimea, fell to the Russians in March 2022 but was liberated by Ukrainian forces on 11 November, the same year. Ukraine controls Zaporizhzhia but the Russians have seized and occupy the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.
This is unfinished business for Putin. When Trump became president and the two leaders, ‘old friends’, had a warming 90-minute chat on the phone, Putin must have concluded that his plans for eastern Ukraine might actually bear fruit.
After Trump fell out with Volodymyr Zelensky last month and announced a suspension of military aid and partial withdrawal of intelligence-sharing, the Russian leader will surely have instructed his commanders on the battlefield to go all out to seize back Kherson and fully occupy the four regions he already considered Russian territory.
So, does he have any incentive to play ball after Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, emerged from the nine-hour discussions in Jeddah with Zelensky’s negotiators armed with the 30-day ceasefire offer, and throwing down the gauntlet to Moscow? ‘The ball is now in Russia’s court. It’s going to be up to them to say yes or no,’ Rubio said.
Putin won’t have much time to make up his mind. Trump said he would give Putin a ring this week and he is reportedly sending his heavyweight, tough-guy billionaire special envoy Steve Witkoff to Moscow to have a face-to-face with the Russian president.
Witkoff has a reputation for never taking no for an answer. When Benjamin Netanyahu baulked at meeting him to talk about a ceasefire in Gaza because the day selected by Witkoff was the Sabbath, the Trump man just told him he would be coming and that was it. Netanyahu caved.
The chances are that Putin will play along with Trump’s quest for peace in Ukraine because there is an unstoppable momentum to end the fighting, and his strategic partner in Beijing is supportive of a deal.
However, what will rub Putin the wrong way is if the 30-day ceasefire agreed by Zelensky’s negotiators in Jeddah is followed by a proposal to freeze the battlefield frontlines as they stand today.
Putin may not persuade Trump and Zelensky to hand him the four Ukrainian regions he wants
Russian troops have been making territorial gains in the east, albeit limited, in recent weeks. Had Trump’s suspension of military aid and intelligence-sharing been maintained for any length of time, Putin might have had the opportunity to attempt a spring offensive to occupy more if not all of the four ‘annexed’ regions.
This is where Trump has played an astute card. The 30-day ceasefire proposal came with a promise to reinstate both US military aid and intelligence-sharing for the Kyiv government, effectively telling Putin that America is back on side with its European coalition partners and Zelensky will get what he wants to defend against Russian aggression.
That just might make a difference in Putin’s calculations.
Important, too, for him is the transformation in relations with the White House, a dramatic change in opportunities for Moscow after years of enduring a Cold War-style freeze.
Putin is never going to break his partnership with China, whatever Trump is hoping for by wooing the Russian president. But it makes eminent sense for Putin to have a pick-up-the-phone relationship with Trump to give him the world-stage status he lost after ordering the invasion of Ukraine in February, 2022.
Putin will gain more by accepting the 30-day ceasefire offer, provided the terms of any future peace settlement follow to the letter the demands he has been making repeatedly over the last three years.
He may not persuade Trump and Zelensky to hand him the four regions he has painted red on his map of Ukraine. But if he can get Trump to scrap all thought of Ukraine joining Nato and see even a limited pullback of alliance forces from eastern Europe, perhaps he might be tempted to place his signature on a settlement document.
However, there are many unknowns: will Putin compromise on those four regions in eastern Ukraine? Will he even consider doing a deal while Zelensky is the leader in Kyiv? And would Nato ever agree to withdraw any of its forward-located forces from the alliance’s member nations closest to Russia’s borders?
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SOURCE: www.spectator.co.uk
RELATED: Ukraine accepts 30-day ceasefire in US talks: What it means for Russia war
The US has resumed military aid and intelligence sharing to Ukraine under a ceasefire deal awaiting Putin’s approval.
AL JAZEERA | Published March 12, 2025
On Tuesday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Ukraine has accepted a 30-day ceasefire with Russia after critical peace talks with the United States in Saudi Arabia.
Washington has, in turn, lifted its pause on military aid and intelligence sharing with Kyiv.
After eight hours of negotiations in the port city of Jeddah, the terms of peace were jointly signed and will be presented to Russia, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who represented Washington in Saudi Arabia, said. The ball is now in Moscow’s court, said Rubio.
Here is what we know about the deal that was struck – and what it means for Russia’s war on Ukraine, now into its fourth year, at a time when US President Donald Trump has repeatedly said that ending the conflict is among his top geopolitical priorities.
What is the ceasefire deal about?
The deal was reached after a meeting in Saudi Arabia. Ukraine was represented by Andriy Yermak, head of Zelenskyy’s office; Andrii Sybiha, the minister of foreign affairs; Rustem Umerov, the minister of defence; and Pavlo Palisa, a colonel in Zelenskyy’s office.
The US was represented by Rubio and National Security Advisor Mike Waltz.
The US and Ukraine released a joint statement after the talks on Tuesday. This statement says that the countries have agreed on “an immediate, interim 30-day ceasefire, which can be extended by mutual agreement of the parties”.
In an X post on Tuesday, Zelenskyy added that the ceasefire will apply to missile, drone and bomb attacks “not only in the Black Sea, but also along the entire front line”.
The joint statement added that this is subject to agreement by Russia – underlining the unusual nature of the agreement. Ceasefire deals are usually struck between warring parties, not one of the nations in a conflict and a country attempting to mediate peace.
The statement said that the US “will communicate to Russia that Russian reciprocity is the key to achieving peace”.
On Wednesday, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters that Russia was waiting to be briefed by the US about the ceasefire proposal before it could comment on whether or not it accepts the proposal’s terms.
What does Ukraine get in return for agreeing to a 30-day ceasefire?
The joint statement added that the US will immediately lift the pause on intelligence sharing and military aid to Ukraine.
After a meeting between US President Donald Trump and Zelenskyy on February 28 at the White House took an acrimonious turn, the US had paused military and intelligence assistance to Ukraine.
The statement added that the presidents of both countries had agreed on inking a deal on Ukraine’s critical minerals “as soon as possible”. The US and Ukraine have been discussing a minerals deal for weeks, which will allow the US to invest in Ukraine’s mineral resources. Trump and Zelenskyy were expected to sign this deal during the Ukrainian leader’s recent White House meeting, but the agreement was not signed.
The joint statement does not explicitly mention any security guarantees to Kyiv – something that Zelenskyy has been seeking.
Trump has repeatedly rejected the idea of the US offering security guarantees. However, the Trump administration has argued that US investment in Ukraine, through the minerals deal, would serve as a security guarantee.
In a Fox News interview that aired on March 3, Vice President JD Vance said: “If you want real security guarantees, if you want to actually ensure that Vladimir Putin does not invade Ukraine again, the very best security guarantee is to give Americans economic upside in the future of Ukraine.” Vance implied that this would deter Russia from attacking Ukraine.
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SOURCE: www.aljazeera.com
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