Hezbollah Conditions Support on Israel’s Pullback as Lebanon Pushes Army Disarmament Plan

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, Prime Minister Nawaf Salam and members of the cabinet stand as they attend a cabinet session to discuss the army’s plan to disarm Hezbollah, at the Presidential Palace in Baabda, Lebanon, September 5, 2025. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir

Published September 6, 2025

Hezbollah has described Lebanon’s recent cabinet session on an army plan to establish a state monopoly on arms as an “opportunity” to promote national stability. However, the group insists that the plan’s implementation is contingent upon Israel’s cessation of military operations and withdrawal from southern Lebanon. Lebanon’s cabinet welcomed the army’s proposal but noted the military’s limited capabilities and cautioned that ongoing Israeli military activities could impede the plan’s execution.

Hezbollah official Mahmoud Qmati emphasized that the group views the government’s declaration as a basis for suspending further implementation of the U.S.-backed disarmament roadmap until Israel halts its strikes and withdraws its troops from southern Lebanon. The disarmament issue remains a deeply divisive topic in Lebanon, especially after last year’s war with Israel. Hezbollah faces substantial pressure from international and domestic actors to disarm but continues to resist amid ongoing Israeli aggression. Secretary General Naim Qassem has even warned of civil unrest if the government pursues disarmament under current conditions.

👥 Public/Political Reactions

• • Hezbollah’s Response: Hezbollah framed Lebanon’s cabinet approval of the army’s disarmament plan as a potential “opportunity” for national stability but immediately set conditions. The group emphasized that any progress toward disarming its forces depends entirely on Israel halting military operations and withdrawing troops from southern Lebanon. This stance reinforces Hezbollah’s long-standing position that disarmament cannot occur unilaterally, highlighting the group’s influence in Lebanese politics.

  • Lebanese Government and Cabinet: The Cabinet welcomed the army’s proposal as a step toward consolidating state authority over weapons but stressed practical limitations. Officials acknowledged the army’s constrained capacity to enforce a monopoly on arms, especially while Israeli forces continue operations near the southern border. This cautious optimism reflects a balancing act: the government seeks stronger state control while avoiding direct confrontation with Hezbollah.

  • Public Sentiment: Among Lebanese citizens, reactions are mixed. Some citizens and political factions support strengthening the state’s authority over armed groups, seeing it as essential for national sovereignty and security. Others, particularly Hezbollah supporters, view the plan skeptically, perceiving it as an externally pressured initiative that could destabilize communities if disarmament is rushed or enforced under threat.

  • Regional and International Reactions: International stakeholders, including the U.S. and European partners, have long urged Lebanon to enforce disarmament of non-state actors, particularly Hezbollah. However, Hezbollah’s conditional support signals continued friction between international expectations and Lebanon’s internal realities.

  • Warnings of Internal Tension: Hezbollah’s Secretary General Naim Qassem explicitly warned that pursuing disarmament under current conditions could trigger civil unrest. This underscores the high stakes of the debate and reflects how deeply intertwined security, politics, and public opinion are in Lebanon.

 Resulting Effects

• Short-term Political Tension: Hezbollah’s conditional support and the government’s cautious endorsement have heightened political friction within Lebanon. Cabinet members must navigate between asserting state authority and avoiding a direct clash with Hezbollah, a dominant political and military force. This tension could slow the implementation of the army’s plan and complicate legislative or security initiatives related to arms control.

• Security Implications: While the army plan aims to consolidate a state monopoly over weapons, actual enforcement remains limited. Israeli military activity in southern Lebanon continues to be a major factor, as Hezbollah links disarmament to Israeli withdrawal. The presence of multiple armed factions alongside the Lebanese army perpetuates uncertainty in border regions, potentially affecting civilian safety and regional stability.

• Impact on Civil Society: Lebanese citizens are caught between political divisions. Supporters of stronger state control may feel frustrated by the slow progress and Hezbollah’s insistence on preconditions. Conversely, Hezbollah supporters may view government moves as externally pressured, raising the risk of protests or unrest. This polarized environment could exacerbate social tensions, particularly in areas where Hezbollah has significant influence.

• International Repercussions: Western countries, particularly the U.S., continue to push for Hezbollah disarmament. The group’s resistance complicates Lebanon’s diplomatic relationships and foreign aid discussions. Failure to implement disarmament could limit Lebanon’s credibility with international partners and hinder security cooperation in the region.

• Symbolic vs. Practical Impact: While the army plan represents a symbolic step toward state authority, practical effects are uncertain. Unless Israeli operations decrease and Hezbollah agrees to phased disarmament, the initiative may remain largely aspirational, reflecting political intentions rather than immediate changes on the ground.

🔮 Future Outlook

• Conditional Implementation: The army’s plan to establish a state monopoly over arms is unlikely to be fully implemented without changes in the regional security environment. Hezbollah has made it clear that its cooperation depends on Israel halting military operations and withdrawing from southern Lebanon. Therefore, progress will likely be incremental, and the plan may remain largely symbolic in the near term.

• Hezbollah’s Strategic Leverage: Hezbollah is likely to continue using the disarmament issue as a bargaining chip in both domestic politics and negotiations with Israel. By tying disarmament to Israeli compliance, the group maintains its influence over national security decisions and ensures that its role in Lebanon remains central.

• Potential for Domestic Tension: If the Lebanese government pushes for disarmament without Hezbollah’s agreement, the risk of civil unrest or political confrontation increases. Areas under strong Hezbollah influence could see protests or clashes, making internal stability fragile.

• Regional Implications: The plan’s success also depends on broader Middle Eastern dynamics. Israeli military activity, regional rivalries, and international pressure will shape Lebanon’s ability to consolidate state authority. Any escalation along the southern border could derail disarmament efforts entirely.

• Long-term Prospects: In the long run, achieving a genuine state monopoly over arms will require negotiated compromises, security guarantees, and potentially international mediation. Without these, Lebanon may continue to operate in a tense equilibrium where armed non-state actors coexist with the national army, limiting the government’s control over security matters.

 Bottom Line:

Lebanon’s army plan to establish a state monopoly on arms represents a strategic effort to assert national authority and stabilize the country. However, its success is heavily dependent on regional dynamics, particularly Israel’s military activity in southern Lebanon and Hezbollah’s conditional cooperation. While the initiative signals a willingness to strengthen state institutions, practical implementation faces significant obstacles, including domestic political divisions, ongoing security threats, and the potential for civil unrest. The situation highlights Lebanon’s fragile balance between state authority, powerful non-state actors, and international expectations, leaving the country’s path toward disarmament and lasting stability uncertain.

SOURCES: REUTERS – Hezbollah says Lebanon move on army plan is ‘opportunity,’ urges Israel to commit to ceasefire 

AL JAZEERA – Lebanon’s cabinet welcomes army plan to disarm Hezbollah, gives no timeline

THE TIMES OF ISRAEL – Lebanon to begin implementing Hezbollah disarmament plan, but details remain secret