Russian President Vladimir Putin and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad visit an Orthodox Christian cathedral in Damascus, Syria on January 7, 2020 [File: Sputnik/Alexei Druzhinin via Reuters]
AL JAZEERA | Published December 10, 2024
Turkiye stands to gain, while Israel feels insecure about what comes next.
After 54 years in power, the al-Assad family’s rule in Syria has come to an end. On December 8, Bashar al-Assad fled the country and sought asylum in Russia. The collapse of one of the most brutal regimes in the modern history of the Middle East came after just 12 days of fighting between the Syrian army and a coalition of opposition forces, and put an end to the 13-year Syrian civil war.
The Syrian conflict took the lives of more than 350,000 Syrians and displaced at least 13 million. Brutal repression by the al-Assad regime turned a peaceful revolution into an internationalised civil war with Russia, Iran, Turkiye and the United States as the key players.
Its collapse will inevitably rearrange the geopolitical map of the region.
Syria’s decades-long alliances
Syria established diplomatic relationship with the Soviet Union in 1944 and became the first Arab country to buy Soviet-made arms a decade later. As other Arab countries, like Egypt, began moving away from the Soviet orbit in the 1970s, Hafez al-Assad’s regime in Syria remained a staunch Soviet ally.
Relations remained strong even after the collapse of the USSR as Russia retained its naval military base in Tartous. In 2004, Bashar al-Assad made his first state visit to Moscow in an attempt to revive the Cold War-era relationship and sought Russian assistance to modernise his army.
Similarly, Syria’s strong ties with Iran are decades old. In 1979, the two countries established an enduring alliance, driven by the shared animosity towards the regime of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein. The 2003 US invasion of Iraq gave the two countries one more reason to close ranks in order to block US attempts to destabilise them.
Why did Assad fall so fast?
The lightning speed of the regime’s collapse surprised observers.
“The state institutions and the military had been hollowed out over the years, and the regime focused primarily on enriching itself rather than providing services to its population, reforming the military, and engendering loyalty to the state,” Quilliam said. “It collapsed because the state and the population suffered a decade of neglect, and Assad squandered the ceasefire years instead of building up support.”
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SOURCE: www.aljazeera.com
RELATED: What does Assad’s downfall mean for Russia àd Russia?
Russian military police members stand outside an armoured personnel carrier (APC) along a road in the countryside near the northeastern Syrian town of Amuda in Hasakeh province on Oct. 24, 2019, as part of a joint patrol between Russian forces and Syrian Kurdish Asayish internal security forces near the border with Turkey. (Delil Soulemalil/AFP via Getty Images)
THE KYIV INDEPENDENT | Published December 10, 2024
As Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad’s regime collapsed in a matter of days, Russia’s influence in the Middle East appeared to wane.
Preoccupied with its all-out war against Ukraine, Russia was unable to prevent the Dec. 8 downfall of its main ally in the region. The stunning rapidity of the rebels’ offensive also made it hard for Russia to gather resources to boost Assad’s defenses.
As Assad has fled Syria and has been granted asylum in Russia, the fate of Russian military bases in Syria now hangs in the balance. The Kremlin’s international prestige has also suffered a heavy blow.
The implications of Assad’s overthrow for Ukraine are less certain.
Some analysts argue that the regime’s collapse will strengthen Ukraine’s position in potential peace talks with Russia.
“(Assad’s downfall) will serve as a major motivator for those opposed to Russia’s war in Ukraine and galvanize international support for Ukraine with a renewed belief that Russia can be defeated,” Neil Quilliam, a Middle East expert at Chatham House, told the Kyiv Independent.
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SOURCE: www.kyivindependent.com
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