MODERN DIPLOMACY | Published February 25, 2025
Recently, Taiwan has received three signals from the United States.
Recently, Taiwan has received three signals from the United States. First, the U.S. has abandoned Ukraine. Second, it has demanded that TSMC expand its investments in the U.S. and rescue Intel. Third, the U.S. State Department revised its “U.S.-Taiwan Relations” webpage, once again removing the phrase “does not support Taiwan independence.”
Of these three signals, only one—about TSMC—represents a direct message from President Trump to Taiwan. However, the other two are also relevant to Taiwan’s situation. The messages conveyed by these signals seem to contradict each other, leaving Taipei confused and uneasy.
For years, Taiwan’s ruling party and its supporters—accounting for about 40% of eligible voters—have clung to two core beliefs. First, they saw America’s staunch support for Ukraine against Russian aggression as a blueprint for how the U.S. would respond to a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan. The cooperation of Atlantic allies to isolate Russia inspired optimism in Taiwan, offering a model for isolating China in the future. If Ukraine, backed by Western unity, could repel Russia and reclaim lost territory, it would signal that the West would ensure Taiwan’s full independence.
Second, the ruling party portrays TSMC and the semiconductor supply chain as a “silicon shield”—an” indispensable pillar of the global economy and technology capable of deterring China’s ambitions to undermine global interests through invasion.
However, within 30 days of Trump’s inauguration, both of these psychological defenses collapsed.
Trump has signaled his intent to shed the financial burden of supporting Ukraine and rebuild ties with Russia, completely dismantling the democratic narrative championed by the Biden administration over the past three years. Yet, over the past four years, Taiwan has positioned itself as a member of the “U.S.-led democratic front”, using this identity to convince domestic voters that democratic values alone could shield them from China.
This explains why former President Tsai Ing-wen, before leaving office, was so fixated on whether the U.S. would continue supporting Ukraine. Last year, signs of wavering commitment had already emerged in Washington. Even after Trump’s election, Taipei still hopes that the United States will not abandon Ukraine, because to do so would be tantamount to abandoning a democratic alliance and a commitment based on values.
Global affairs, however, have always obeyed realism, not democratic prayers. No miracle occurred. Taiwan’s ruling party, like Europe, was left stunned and incredulous by the Trump administration’s complete reversal of Ukraine policy. According to Reuters, Washington even opposed including language condemning Russia in a joint G7 statement expected at the end of February.
The Economist also began to question, “Will it be Ukraine today, Taiwan tomorrow? , accusing Trump of planting a ticking time bomb in the Indo-Pacific region, leaving everyone on edge, and Taiwan fears becoming an abandoned pawn in the US-China game.
In truth, what happened to Ukraine is only symbolic for Taiwan and will at best bring some embarrassment to the ruling party. But what happened to TSMC is substantial. According to the Trump administration’s approach, Taiwan will not only lose its “silicon shield,” but the overall economy will also suffer unprecedented damage.
Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs to require Taiwan semiconductors to set up factories in the U.S., with reports suggesting TSMC is also tasked with bailing out Intel.
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SOURCE: www.moderndiplomacy.eu
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The new US administration says it wants to focus on China. But US President Donald Trump’s latest signals to Europe have convinced some in Taipei that Washington is not really committed to protecting Taiwan.
The protests over Ukraine war were held in front of Russia’s diplomatic outpost in TaipeiImage: Walid Berrazeg
DW | Published February 25, 2025
The black bag is fastened over Wu Ping-yen’s head. From a row of around a dozen people, all with hands tied behind their backs, Wu and the faceless figures beside him slowly fall to the floor outside Russia‘s de facto embassy in central Taipei.
Organizers say this protest in support of Ukraine, marking the third anniversary of Moscow’s invasion of its neighbor, represents the killing of Ukrainians at the hands of Russia. But Wu, a 34-year-old engineer living in Taipei, says he is also here to resist pressure from China, which views the self-ruled Taiwan as a breakaway province.
Three years since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Wu’s support of Kyiv has taken on new urgency. Under President Donald Trump, the United States has been acting erratically — Trump has accused Ukraine’s democratically-elected leader of being a dictator, implied Ukraine was the one starting the conflict with Russia, and most recently, voted against a UN resolution condemning Russia’s invasion.
The invasion in Ukraine was seen as a warning by many in TaiwanImage: James Chater
In Taipei, where US military backing is viewed as essential to fending off a potential Chinese attack, many are now asking if Washington is still committed to the delicate balance of power in the Taiwan Strait.
Wu told DW that he wasn’t concerned about conflict with China in the short-term. But he added that the US was now trying to determine if “Taiwan is worth helping.”
“That’s where Trump could be unpredictable, if he believes Taiwan isn’t resilient enough,” he said.
‘Today Ukraine, Tomorrow Taiwan’
From the first days of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, many in Taipei have seen Kyiv’s fate as a parallel to their own; ‘Today Ukraine, Tomorrow Taiwan’ slogans proliferated on Taiwanese social media, and Western officials cast Ukraine and Taiwan as part of the same global struggle against expansionist authoritarian powers. A favorable outcome for Moscow in Ukraine, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte warned as recently as December, could encourage China to “nibble” at Taiwan.
Wu thinks the US is already questioning its stance on TaiwanImage: Walid Berrazeg
Meanwhile, Russia and China have deepened their so-called “no limits partnership.” This Monday, Chinese leader Xi Jinping and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin held a call in which they said relations between the two countries have “unique strategic value, and are not aimed at, nor are influenced by, any third party” — a likely reference to Washington.
And since taking power in January, the new Trump administration has upended alliances with Europe, overturning the view that the two theaters — Europe and Asia — should be tackled in concert with Western partners. US defense secretary Pete Hegseth told NATO allies earlier this month that “stark strategic realities prevent the United States of America from being primarily focused on the security of Europe.” Washington, the Trump administration says, needs to focus on China.
Taipei trying to bolster Washington ties
But separating those issues is easier said than done. Amanda Hsiao, China Director at the Eurasia Group consultancy, told DW that what happens in Europe raises questions about how the Trump administration “might sideline Taiwan or coerce Taiwan in its attempt to deter war with China.”
Wang Ting-yu, Chair of Taiwan’s Foreign Affairs and National Defense Committee, who also attended Trump’s inauguration in January, admitted that Trump’s approach was “causing some concern in Taiwan,” but that it was still too early to make a full judgment.
The official said Taipei was communicating with Washington and reiterating Taiwan was a reliable partner. Wang told DW that Taipei had a “direct way of conveying what we think,” but refused to comment on the specifics of communication channels.
Taiwan’s presidential office declined to comment for this story, instead referring DW to statements issued by the foreign ministry which said Taiwan was “closely monitoring” the positions of the United States, Europe and Russia.
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