Israel’s moves to secure Lebanon, Syria borders risk further destabilisation: analysts

SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST | Published January 31, 2025

Experts warn Israel’s extended occupation may undermine Lebanon’s government, embolden Hezbollah and raise uncertainties in post-war Syria

Israel’s continued occupation of southern Lebanon and adjacent areas of Syria reflects a US-backed move to secure the Jewish-majority state’s borders, analysts say.

But by attempting to impose an “ideal solution” to the threat posed by Lebanese Hezbollah and address uncertainty arising from the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, analysts warned that Israel could destabilise the new non-hostile governments of both countries, thereby fuelling threats against itself.

Israel’s refusal to withdraw from parts of southern Lebanon on Sunday, in accordance with the terms of a ceasefire struck in November with Iranian ally Hezbollah, “presents an immediate political challenge” to the new government in Beirut, as well as to US President Donald Trump’s administration, said Kristian Ulrichsen, a Middle East fellow at Houston-based Rice University’s Institute for Public Policy.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced the decision two days before the January 25 deadline, claiming that the agreement “has not yet been fully enforced by the Lebanese state” by deploying troops in previously Hezbollah-dominated southern areas and ensuring the group had withdrawn its forces to the Litani River, about 30km north of the Israeli border.

Israel’s ambassador to the US, Michael Herzog, last week acknowledged facing challenges in persuading the Trump administration to support the decision.

Israel had sought a month-long extension to the ceasefire agreement, but settled for a new February 18 deadline to withdraw from southern Lebanon.

The White House backed Israel’s decision on Friday, saying a “short, temporary ceasefire extension is urgently needed” in Lebanon.

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, elected on January 9 with tacit US support to weaken Hezbollah’s stranglehold on the government, condemned Israel’s refusal to pull back, saying his country’s “sovereignty and territorial integrity are non-negotiable”.

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SOURCE: www.scmp.com

RELATED: Southern Lebanon: Fragile Prospects for Lasting Stability

ITALIAN INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL STUDIES | Published January 31, 2025

The MED This Week newsletter provides informed insights on the most significant developments in the MENA region, bringing together unique opinions and reliable foresight on future scenarios. Today, we shed light on recent developments in southern Lebanon.

Following the extension of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon until 18 February, residents of southern Lebanon continue to attempt returning home, despite facing Israeli gunfire. While the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) were expected to deploy and take control of areas from which Israeli troops were supposed to withdraw, their efforts have been hindered by the prolonged Israeli occupation and ongoing military operations, including demolitions and attacks on the LAF itself, as well as internal structural weaknesses. Additionally, Hezbollah’s reluctance to fully withdraw north of the Litani River has further complicated the situation. In this context, hopes for reform and stabilisation, along with efforts to limit Hezbollah’s influence in Lebanon – goals that had gained momentum after the election of LAF Commander Joseph Aoun as president– have diminished. Despite the uncertainty, Aoun is actively working to rebuild Lebanon’s international ties and secure external support. In addition to maintaining close contact with the US and France, which co-chair the committee overseeing the ceasefire, Aoun is also engaging with Saudi Arabia. Following the recent visit of Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al-Saud to Beirut – the first by a senior Saudi diplomat in fifteen years – the president announced that his first official visit will be to Riyadh. These moves signal Saudi Arabia’s readiness to capitalise on significant geopolitical shifts, including the Lebanon ceasefire and the fall of Bashar al-Assad in neighbouring Syria, in order to counter Iranian influence and assert its own role in the region.

 

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SOURCE: www.ispionline.it

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