| Published May 26, 2025
Dmitry Medvedev, Russia’s former president and current deputy chairman of the Security Council, recently proposed an expansive “buffer zone” in Ukraine, suggesting it could encompass nearly the entire country, leaving only a narrow strip along the Polish border. This proposal was shared on his Telegram channel and accompanied by a map illustrating the envisioned zone.
Medvedev’s rationale centers on protecting Russian regions, such as Belgorod, from Western-supplied long-range missiles like the Storm Shadow, which can reach up to 550 kilometers. He argues that to ensure safety, Russia must control territory extending 550 km plus an additional 70 to 100 km beyond its borders.
Sputnik/Yekaterina Shtukina/Pool via REUTERS
However, military analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) highlight the impracticality of this plan. They estimate that at Russia’s current rate of territorial advancement—approximately 14.3 square kilometers per day—it would take about 91 years to seize the proposed 587,459 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory. Moreover, the endeavor could result in approximately 50 million Russian casualties, about a third of the country’s population.
A tiny sliver of what could pass for Ukrainian territory was left along the Polish border. He cited that Western long-range weapons might make this necessary, though Putin has never articulated or affirmed any plan to take over the whole of Ukraine. From a strategic perspective, occupying the whole country would be a nightmare for Moscow forces – on the manpower, economic, logistical, and political blowback fronts.
Medvedev’s statements reflect a hardline stance within the Kremlin, often issuing hyperbolic threats aimed at Ukraine and its Western allies. While President Vladimir Putin has not publicly endorsed such an extensive occupation, Medvedev’s pronouncements may serve as a strategic signal amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions.
The implications of Medvedev’s proposed “buffer zone” swallowing most of Ukraine are significant, both geopolitically and militarily:
1. Escalation Signal to the West
Medvedev’s map isn’t just a territorial fantasy—it signals that Russia may consider total control over Ukraine a legitimate endgame. This escalates the psychological warfare component and attempts to deter Western support by raising the stakes.
2. Undermines Diplomatic Resolution
Proposing such a vast territorial grab makes any future peace negotiations more difficult. Ukraine and its allies will see this as proof that Russia’s leadership isn’t serious about compromise or respecting Ukraine’s sovereignty.
3. Mobilization of NATO Support
This kind of threat can prompt NATO to increase military support for Ukraine. Western countries may interpret this as evidence that a contained war is no longer the Kremlin’s goal, justifying further arms deliveries or even deeper strategic involvement.
4. Domestic Russian Propaganda
For Russia’s domestic audience, the map reinforces the narrative of an existential conflict against NATO and the West. It bolsters hardline support and distracts from domestic issues by portraying territorial expansion as necessary for national survival.
5. China and Global South Watching Closely
Countries like China and those in the Global South may view this development through a realpolitik lens. If Russia is perceived as serious and the West hesitant, it could influence diplomatic alignments in global forums like BRICS or the UN.
6. Long-Term Destabilization of Eastern Europe
If taken seriously, this buffer zone would turn Ukraine into a permanent battleground, destabilizing neighboring nations like Poland, Romania, and the Baltics, possibly prompting military buildups and refugee surges.
Overall Takeaway:
Medvedev’s proposed “buffer zone” is less a realistic military plan and more a geopolitical signal of Russia’s maximalist ambitions. It reflects the Kremlin’s hardline posture, escalates rhetorical warfare with the West, and undermines any near-term prospects for diplomatic resolution. While militarily impractical, the proposal serves to intimidate, provoke NATO, and reinforce domestic propaganda—keeping the conflict on a trajectory of prolonged instability.
SOURCES: ZEROHEDGE – Medvedev Issues Map Showing Putin’s ‘Buffer Zone’ Could Swallow Most Of Ukraine
BUSINESS INSIDER – Russia’s former president wants to seize a ‘buffer zone’ in Ukraine. It would take 91 years at Moscow’s rate of advance.
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