Milton is growing larger and is poised to make landfall around midnight

Published October 10, 2024

12 mins ago

A satellite image as Milton churns toward Florida. (WeatherNerds.org)

As of 10 a.m. Eastern time, Milton was a Category 4 hurricane with maximum winds in its core to 155 mph. It was centered about 210 miles southwest of Tampa, moving northeast at 16 mph.

Computer models generally suggest that the storm will come ashore within a couple hours of midnight Eastern time — probably between Tampa Bay and Sarasota. Conditions will deteriorate in west central Florida through Wednesday, particularly during the afternoon and evening.

“Now is the time to rush to complete all preparations to protect life and property in accordance with your emergency plan,” wrote the National Hurricane Center. “Ensure you are in a safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather warnings.”

Milton remains an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane, and the Hurricane Center predicts that it will come ashore as a high-end Category 3 or low-end 4. On Tuesday night, the Hurricane Center stated that Milton “has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida.”

The storm’s structure is evolving to become broader. Satellite imagery indicates that it is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, during which the inner eyewall of the storm — or ring of violent storms around the calm center — is swallowed by a broader, more dominant eyewall surrounding it. That will expand the radius of maximum winds. While maximum winds will decrease, the more expansive zone of winds will lead to a bigger storm surge potential.

On satellite, the circulation has become a touch lopsided. It no longer possesses the same symmetry it did earlier as a Category 5. Air pressures have been climbing subtly too, an indication that the storm isn’t vacuuming in quite as much air. That’s a sign that the storm is becoming somewhat less intense even as it grows.

A look at morphed microwave infrared imagery, which depicts the evolving eyewall of the storm. (CIMSS)

 

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SOURCE: www.washingtonpost.com