Medics and police at the scene of a deadly Hezbollah rocket impact in Shfar’am, northern Israel, November 18, 2024. (AP Photo/Leo Correa)
THE TIMES OF ISRÀEL | Published December 18, 2024
Israeli assessments were nearly identical, but Netanyahu decided to step up campaign in Lebanon, deeming the heavy cost worth paying, officials tell ToI
WASHINGTON — US intelligence assessments before Israel escalated its conflict against the Lebanese Hezbollah terror group in September said that such a move risked sparking an all-out war in which hundreds — if not thousands — of Israelis would be killed, three US officials and one Israeli official told The Times of Israel this week.
The assessments relied heavily on similar ones crafted by Israel’s own intelligence community, the US officials said, acknowledging that both countries’ assessments proved wildly inaccurate within days, as the IDF methodically took out much of Hezbollah’s missile and drone capabilities, dismantled its military infrastructure in southern Lebanon, picked off almost every member of its senior leadership and killed or wounded thousands of operatives — many of them in audacious mass detonations of the terror group’s communication devices.
Hezbollah did manage to expand the range of its rocket and drone launches, disrupting life for tens of thousands of citizens in parts of Israel that had been free of such threats over the past year. Fifty-seven Israeli soldiers and 21 civilians were killed during the roughly two-month escalation that ensued.
But Israel’s military achievements in Lebanon were overwhelming and ultimately led the Iran-backed Shiite group to agree to a ceasefire late last month after having pledged for over a year that it would not halt its attacks — which it began hours after Hamas’s October 7 onslaught — until Israel agreed to a still-elusive ceasefire in Gaza.
As tensions between Israel and Hezbollah began to ratchet up over the summer, US intelligence assessments had warned of a very different scenario in the offing.
“The assessments… were that this was potentially going to be a catastrophic war that would cause potentially hundreds or thousands of Israeli casualties as Hezbollah missiles overwhelmed Israeli defenses,” said one of the US officials.
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SOURCE: www.timesofisrael.com
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US intelligence officials wrongly predicted catastrophic consequences if Israel escalated its military actions against Hezbollah in September (Image: Getty)
THE JEWISH CHRONICLE | Published December 18, 2024
US intelligence officials wrongly predicted catastrophic consequences if Israel escalated against Hezbollah in September and warned of massive casualties and all-out war, according to a new report.
According to Times of Israel, US assessments prior to Israel’s escalation were based largely on intelligence from Israel itself, which envisioned Hezbollah’s missile capabilities overwhelming Israeli defences and causing substantial Israeli loss of life.
However, Israel crippled Hezbollah’s infrastructure and leadership in southern Lebanon, eventually leading the weakened terror group to agree to a ceasefire.
“The assessments… were that this was potentially going to be a catastrophic war that would cause potentially hundreds or thousands of Israeli casualties as Hezbollah missiles overwhelmed Israeli defences,” one US official told Times of Israel. These predictions, however, proved to be far from accurate.
Instead, the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) dismantled much of Hezbollah’s military infrastructure, destroyed missile and drone capabilities, and decimated its senior leadership.
Hezbollah did manage to expand its range of rocket and drone launches, disrupting life for civilians in areas previously untouched by such threats, leading to 57 Israeli soldiers and 21 civilians losing their lives during the two-month escalation.
Israel’s military successes were significant enough to force Hezbollah, which had been aggressively attacking since October 7, to agree to a ceasefire by late November.
In the lead-up to Israel’s September offensive, US intelligence officials had expressed grave concerns about the potential for a devastating war.
“The disaster scenario appeared increasingly likely as Israel began striking targets deeper into Lebanon,” said one US official.
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SOURCE: www.thejc.com
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