This handout photo taken on Mar 21, 2024 and received from the Philippine Coast Guard and Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources shows an aerial view of Philippine scientists inspecting Sandy Cay reef, near the Philippine-held Thitu Island, in Spratly Islands, in disputed waters of the South China Sea. (File photo: AFP)
| Published April 27, 2025
Tensions in the South China Sea have intensified following China’s recent seizure of Sandy Cay, a contested sandbank near the Philippine-held Thitu Island (Pag-asa Island) in the Spratly Islands. The Chinese Coast Guard raised the national flag on Sandy Cay, asserting sovereignty over the feature, which Beijing refers to as Tiexian Reef.
The Philippines responded by deploying naval, coast guard, and maritime police personnel to Sandy Cay and adjacent sandbanks, also planting their national flag to reaffirm sovereignty. This confrontation occurred just before joint U.S.-Philippine military drills near the disputed region.
Sandy Cay, though small at approximately 200 square meters, holds strategic importance due to its proximity to Thitu Island, the Philippines’ key military base in the Spratlys. Under international law, control over Sandy Cay could grant a 12-nautical-mile territorial sea, potentially overlapping with Philippine-controlled waters.
The incident coincides with the ongoing “Balikatan” joint military exercises between the United States and the Philippines, involving over 14,000 troops. These drills, which include live-fire exercises and air defense simulations, aim to enhance defense cooperation amid escalating tensions with Beijing.
The White House expressed concern over China’s actions, citing threats to regional stability and potential violations of international law. The 2016 Hague ruling had previously deemed China’s broad sea claims inconsistent with international law.
As the situation develops, the international community watches closely, concerned about the potential for further escalation in the disputed waters of the South China Sea.
Here are the implications of China seizing Sandy Cay near the Philippine outpost:
1. Increased Risk of Military Clash
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With Philippine forces already deployed to nearby sandbanks and U.S. troops conducting exercises nearby, there’s a real risk of a direct confrontation.
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Even a minor incident could spiral into a broader regional conflict.
2. Strengthened U.S.-Philippine Alliance
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The Philippines is likely to deepen military cooperation with the United States and possibly seek stronger commitments under their mutual defense treaty.
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Expect more frequent joint drills, intelligence sharing, and defense system upgrades.
3. Escalation of South China Sea Tensions
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Other Southeast Asian nations like Vietnam, Malaysia, and Indonesia may step up their own claims and military preparedness.
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The South China Sea could become an even more contested and militarized zone.
4. Philippines’ Shift in Foreign Policy
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Manila may move even closer to Western allies and away from past attempts to balance relations with Beijing.
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Expect stronger Philippine diplomatic efforts at the UN, ASEAN, and other global forums.
5. Pressure on International Law
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China’s move blatantly ignores the 2016 Hague ruling, weakening the authority of international maritime law.
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It could encourage other powers (like Russia in the Arctic or Iran in the Gulf) to challenge international norms more aggressively.
6. Economic and Trade Impacts
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Heightened tensions might affect trade routes through the South China Sea, where one-third of global trade passes.
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Investors could view the region as higher risk, impacting Philippine and possibly Southeast Asian markets.
Overall Takeaway:
China’s seizure of Sandy Cay marks a bold escalation in the South China Sea dispute, directly challenging Philippine sovereignty and international law. It underscores Beijing’s willingness to assert territorial claims by force even amid rising U.S. military support for the Philippines. As tensions mount, the risk of military confrontation grows, alliances harden, and the fragile security of one of the world’s busiest maritime regions is put under greater strain. This incident could reshape regional dynamics for years to come.
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