‘Difficult ceasefire’: Guns silent, but will the India-Pakistan truce hold?

Red projectiles seen over Srinagar, Indian-administered Kashmir after the ceasefire was announced on May 10, 2025 [Mukhtar Khan/AP Photo]

| Published May 11, 2025

While residents along India’s border areas remain on the edge after alleged violations, experts say the fragile peace does not promise much.

The ceasefire between India and Pakistan, announced on May 10, 2025, has faced immediate challenges, raising concerns about its durability.

The truce was brokered after intense U.S.-led diplomatic efforts involving President Donald Trump, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Vice President JD Vance. It aimed to halt escalating violence that began with a deadly militant attack in Indian-administered Kashmir on April 22, which killed 26 civilians, mostly Hindu tourists. India accused Pakistan of supporting the attackers, leading to retaliatory strikes across the border. Both nations, armed with nuclear weapons, launched attacks on each other’s military installations, raising fears of broader conflict.

Despite the ceasefire agreement, hostilities resumed shortly after. Explosions and drone intrusions were reported in Indian-controlled Kashmir, prompting air defense responses in cities like Srinagar and Jammu. India claimed Pakistan breached the ceasefire, directing its armed forces to respond strongly, while Pakistan denied the violations and urged communication and restraint.

The situation remains tense, with both countries accusing each other of violations. Residents along the Line of Control in areas such as Poonch (Indian-controlled Kashmir) and Neelum Valley (Pakistan-controlled Kashmir) described chaos and trauma from intense shelling and exchanges of fire.

International reactions have been swift. The United Nations and countries around the world, including Bangladesh, Qatar, Turkiye, and the United Kingdom, have welcomed the truce, emphasizing the importance of diplomacy, de-escalation, and regional stability.

However, geopolitical and military experts argue the ceasefire is fragile and does not promise much. Sumantra Bose, a political scientist, noted that the Indian government has signaled a reluctance to engage in broader talks, given its commitment to unilateralism on Kashmir and rejection of diplomatic engagement with Pakistan.

As of now, the ceasefire appears to be holding, but the situation remains volatile. Both sides have mobilized military forces near the border, and the Indus Waters Treaty remains suspended . The international community continues to monitor developments closely, urging both nations to maintain restraint and pursue diplomatic solutions to resolve longstanding issues.

---

The recent ceasefire between India and Pakistan has significant implications:

1. Regional Stability and Security Risks:

• The ceasefire has temporarily reduced active hostilities but remains fragile. Any violation could rapidly escalate into a broader conflict between two nuclear-armed nations.

• Civilian populations in border regions remain at risk, facing ongoing threats of shelling and military engagements.

2. U.S. Influence and Diplomatic Mediation:

• The U.S. role, led by former President Donald Trump and senior officials, highlights Washington’s continued influence in South Asian diplomacy.

• American involvement may set a precedent for future U.S. mediation in regional conflicts, enhancing its diplomatic standing.

3. Impact on India-Pakistan Relations:

• Trust between the two nations is at an all-time low, with both accusing each other of ceasefire violations.

• The truce lacks any structured peace process or long-term framework, making it vulnerable to collapse.

4. Domestic Political Reactions:

• Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government may face pressure to maintain a hardline stance on Kashmir, impacting domestic politics.

• In Pakistan, Prime Minister Anwaar-ul-Haq Kakar’s administration may struggle to balance diplomacy with national security concerns.

5. Economic and Humanitarian Concerns:

• Border regions, especially Kashmir, continue to suffer from disrupted livelihoods, damaged infrastructure, and humanitarian crises.

• A prolonged conflict could impact trade, tourism, and cross-border commerce.

6. Global Geopolitical Dynamics:

• China’s position as Pakistan’s ally and Russia’s relations with India could complicate international diplomacy.

• The ceasefire will test the effectiveness of international organizations like the United Nations in conflict mediation.

---

Overall Takeaway:

The India-Pakistan ceasefire is a fragile diplomatic achievement that temporarily halts violence but lacks a sustainable framework for peace. With deep mistrust, active military mobilizations, and unresolved issues, the truce could easily collapse without stronger diplomatic engagement. The situation highlights the region’s volatility, the critical role of international mediation, and the ongoing risk to civilians in conflict zones.

---

SOURCE: AL JAZEERA – ‘Difficult ceasefire’: Guns silent, but will the India-Pakistan truce hold?

BBC – India-Pakistan ceasefire appears to hold after accusations of violations

---