FILE – A Turkish navy helicopter, ship and submarine take part in a warfare exercise off the coast of Catania, Sicily, southern Italy, Monday, Feb. 26, 2024. (AP Photo/Salvatore Cavalli, File)
| Published June 21, 2025
Turkish president says buildup ‘ensures deterrence’ in light of recent developments; officials, analysts see little chance of war spreading to Turkey, but fear regional arms race
🇹🇷 Erdogan Warns of War’s Tipping Point & Announces Missile Build-Up
As tensions escalate between Israel and Iran, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has issued a stark warning: the conflict is nearing a “point of no return.” Speaking at a recent summit in Istanbul, Erdoğan condemned the growing violence and signaled a major shift in Turkey’s military posture by vowing to boost domestic missile production. Framing the move as a necessary measure of deterrence, the Turkish leader emphasized the need for regional self-reliance amid global instability. While calling for diplomacy and mediation, Erdoğan made clear that Turkey is preparing for a more volatile and uncertain future in the Middle East.
🔊 Clarion Call at OIC Youth Forum
Speaking at the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation’s youth forum in Istanbul, Erdogan denounced the “genocide in Gaza” and the escalating Israel–Iran war, saying the region, Europe, and Asia could face long-lasting consequences if it spirals further.
🛡️ Missile Production & Deterrence Boost
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Erdogan revealed concrete plans to expand domestic production of medium- and long-range missiles to reinforce Turkey’s air defense and deter external threats.
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He emphasized closing the gap with nations like the U.S. and Israel, striving for a deterrence capacity so formidable “no one will even dare to act tough toward us”.
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Despite these armament plans, analysts see little chance of Turkey entering the conflict directly—but warn of a ripple effect triggering a regional arms race.
🤝 Diplomatic Overture & Nuclear Talks Sabotage
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Erdogan reaffirmed Turkey’s willingness to mediate Iran–U.S. nuclear talks, calling dialogue “the only way” to resolve the crisis.
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He accused recent Israeli airstrikes on Iran of sabotaging diplomacy and urged Muslim nations to amplify pressure on Israel through legal frameworks and U.N. resolutions.
Illustrative: Turkish soldiers fire a missile at forces loyal to then-Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad, in the province of Idlib, Syria, February 14, 2020. (AP Photo/Ghaith Alsayed)
Implications
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Regional Arms Race Acceleration
Turkey’s move to ramp up missile production could prompt neighboring countries—such as Iran, Israel, and Gulf states—to enhance their own arsenals, intensifying regional militarization. -
Increased Deterrence Posture
Erdoğan’s announcement signals Turkey’s intent to bolster its defensive and strategic deterrence capabilities, reducing reliance on NATO and asserting military independence. -
Diplomatic Repositioning
By offering to mediate in the Iran-U.S. nuclear standoff, Turkey aims to reassert itself as a central diplomatic player in the Middle East and beyond. -
Pressure on Israel
Erdoğan’s sharp criticism of Israel’s strikes on Iran adds political weight to broader Muslim world condemnation, increasing international pressure on Tel Aviv amid its ongoing operations. -
Domestic Political Consolidation
The announcement allows Erdoğan to strengthen his nationalist base at home, projecting strength and sovereignty amid economic challenges and growing dissent. -
UN & Global Response Shift
As Turkey steps up militarily while calling for diplomacy, the UN and global powers may be forced to reevaluate Ankara’s dual role as both power broker and potential military actor.
💬 Overall Takeaway:
President Erdoğan’s vow to expand Turkey’s missile production marks a decisive shift in Ankara’s regional strategy—balancing calls for diplomacy with clear preparation for conflict. As the Israel–Iran war intensifies, Turkey is asserting its role not just as a mediator, but as a self-reliant military power capable of influencing the balance of power in the Middle East. This move reflects a broader trend: in a world where global alliances are strained and peace talks falter, nations like Turkey are hedging their bets—arming themselves while still offering to negotiate. Whether this dual strategy brings stability or provokes greater tension remains to be seen.
SOURCES: THE TIMES OF ISRAEL – Erdogan says Israel-Iran war near ‘point of no return,’ vows to boost missile production
AP NEWS – Erdogan vows to boost Turkey’s missile production as Israel-Iran war escalates
THE DERRICK – Erdogan vows to boost Turkey’s missile production as Israel-Iran war escalates
MANILA BULLETIN – Erdogan vows to boost Turkey’s missile production as Israel-Iran war escalates
