| Published May 5, 2025
Iranian Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh declared that Iran would retaliate against any attacks from the United States or Israel by targeting their interests, bases, and forces globally. This statement followed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s pledge to respond to a missile launched by Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen that landed near Israel’s Ben Gurion Airport. Netanyahu accused Iran of being responsible for the attack, warning of a response both to the Houthis and Iran itself. Nasirzadeh maintained that the Houthis operate independently and reiterated Iran’s non-hostile intentions toward neighboring countries, though it will consider U.S. regional bases as targets if attacked. The comments coincide with the unveiling of Iran’s new solid-fuel ballistic missile, the “Qassem Bassir”, with a range of 1,200 km (750 miles).
The missile attack on Ben Gurion Airport by the Houthi movement resulted in eight Israelis being injured and caused significant disruptions to air traffic. The missile, which the Houthis claim to be hypersonic with stealth technology, landed near the main terminal, creating a large crater and damaging infrastructure. This incident marked the first time a missile landed so close to Israel’s main airport, leading to temporary suspension of flights and cancellations by several major airlines.
In response to these developments, oil prices dropped by more than $2 per barrel in early Asian trading as OPEC+ agreed to accelerate production increases, raising concerns of oversupply. Brent crude fell 3.33% to $59.25, while West Texas Intermediate dropped 3.60% to $56.19, both hitting their lowest levels since April 9. The decision marks the second consecutive month of acceleration, with OPEC+ set to raise output in June by 411,000 barrels per day, bringing the combined increase for April through June to 960,000 bpd—44% of the previously agreed 2.2 million bpd cuts since 2022. Saudi Arabia is reportedly pushing for faster unwinding of cuts to penalize Iraq and Kazakhstan for non-compliance. Barclays reduced its 2025 Brent forecast by $4 to $66, and 2026 by $2 to $60 due to the anticipated supply increase. Geopolitical tensions also persist, with Israel threatening retaliation against Iran over missile attacks attributed to Iran-backed Houthis, and Iran warning it would respond if attacked by the U.S. or Israel.
The situation remains tense, with Iran emphasizing its readiness to defend itself against any aggression, while the U.S. and Israel consider their response options. The international community watches closely as the potential for escalation looms.
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