Iran ‘facing a bunch of really, really bad options,’ says expert
CNN |
Published October 30, 2024
Iran rushed to downplay the impact of Israel’s strikes on its territory this weekend, suggesting that it has taken an off-ramp to avoid a wider war, but the attack set a precedent the Islamic Republic has tried to avoid since its inception 40 years ago.
The adversaries had spent decades avoiding direct confrontation, instead choosing to exchange punches in a shadow war. Israel used clandestine operations to assassinate key Iranian figures and execute cyberattacks on vital facilities as Iran continued activating its Arab proxy militias to attack the Jewish state.
Saturday’s attack marked the first time Israel has acknowledged striking Iran, bringing the shadow war into the open and crossing a threshold that has led some in the Islamic Republic to question the country’s deterrence capabilities.
In April, after Iran attacked Israel in retaliation for what it said was an Israeli attack on its diplomatic building in the Syrian capital Damascus, US officials said Israel responded by attacking Iran just days later. Israel didn’t publicly acknowledge that attack.
The latest attack, however, was different. Israel openly said it conducted “precise strikes” on military targets in Iran.
“Israel now has broader aerial freedom of operation in Iran,” Israel’s military spokesman Daniel Hagari said, touting achievements in the attack.
Shortly after the assault, Iran’s state media published images showing everyday life continuing as usual in its cities. Schools continued operating and Tehran’s streets were shown gridlocked with traffic. Hardline commentators mocked the attack on television and social media memes poked fun at the limited nature of the Israeli response.
Internal debate emerging
In his first comments after the attack, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei opted to give a measured response, saying the strikes should “neither be exaggerated nor downplayed.”
But that initial wave of dismissal eventually dissipated, and an internal debate emerged over whether Iran should deliver a harsh response to prevent Israeli strikes from becoming normalized against a regime focused on its own survival.
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SOURCE: www.cnn.com
RELATED: Analysis: Iran’s options after Israel’s attack, and why none of them are good
Commuters drive past a billboard bearing pictures of Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian (2-L), armed forces chief of staff Major General Mohammad Bagheri (L), US President Joe Biden (2-R) and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (R) in Vali-Asr square in Tehran on October 27, 2024. (AFP)
ALALRABIYA NEWS |
Published October 30, 2024
One consequence of the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack on Israel, which sparked the war in Gaza and further tensions across the Middle East, has been the considerable weakening of Iranian deterrence.
In under a year, Israel assassinated several senior Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commanders, attacked an Iranian diplomatic site, assassinated the leader of Hamas Ismail Haniyeh while he was in the Iranian capital, and killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, a revered figure among Iranian regime supporters, some of whom considered him a candidate for Iran’s next supreme leader.
On Saturday, Iran suffered another serious setback when the conflict reached its own soil – a scenario Tehran has long sought to avoid. In an unprecedented move, Israel overtly attacked military sites, including missile factories, in Iran. The airstrikes killed at least four soldiers and one civilian, according to Iran.
It was the first overt, large-scale attack on Iran by a state actor since the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s. It was also the most significant operation – whether overt or covert – carried out by Israel against Iran to date.
The Israeli attack “represents the breaking of a major taboo and is a disturbing development that could be a harbinger of more such attacks in the future,” Farzan Sabet, senior research associate at the Geneva Graduate Institute, told Al Arabiya English.
This transition from indirect to direct conflict began with Iran’s unprecedented missile and drone strike on Israel in April, in response to a deadly attack on Iran’s consulate in Damascus, widely attributed to Israel.
Analysts now suggest this shift may have backfired on Iran.
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SOURCE: www.english.alarabiya.net
