Mazloum Abdi (C), commander-in-chief of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), said the conference of Kurdish parties ‘does not aim, as some say, at division’ of Syria © Delil SOULEIMAN / AFP
| Published April 27, 2025
Syria’s Kurdish parties on Saturday adopted a joint political vision calling for a “decentralised democratic” state in Syria with guarantees for Kurdish rights.
Syrian Kurdish groups are intensifying their push for a federal system in post-Assad Syria, aiming to secure regional autonomy and constitutional recognition of their rights. This demand arises amid ongoing negotiations with Damascus and a broader political transition following the ousting of President Bashar al-Assad.
🧭 Background
The Syrian Democratic Council (SDC), the political arm of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), has rejected the interim constitution declared by interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa. They argue that the document fails to acknowledge Syria’s diverse ethnic and religious communities, including Kurds, Alawites, Christians, and Druze, and continues authoritarian practices reminiscent of the previous regime. Protests erupted in Kurdish-majority areas like Qamishli, with demonstrators demanding a “democratic and federal” system to ensure Kurdish autonomy.
In response, Kurdish leaders are uniting to present a cohesive demand for federalism and constitutional guarantees of Kurdish rights in talks with Damascus, despite skepticism about interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa’s willingness to accept decentralization.
🔍 Implications
For Kurdish Autonomy:
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Political Leverage: By presenting a unified front, Kurdish groups aim to strengthen their position in negotiations with the central government, seeking recognition of their governance structures and cultural rights.
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Security Concerns: The demand for regional autonomy includes the establishment of local security forces, which may lead to tensions with other factions and neighboring countries.
For Syrian Unity:
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Decentralization vs. Centralization: The push for federalism challenges the interim government’s vision of a centralized state, potentially leading to political gridlock or conflict over governance structures.
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Constitutional Debate: The debate over federalism is central to discussions about Syria’s future constitution, influencing the balance of power between regional and central authorities.
For Regional Dynamics:
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International Relations: The Kurdish demand for federalism may affect Syria’s relations with neighboring countries, particularly Turkey, which views Kurdish autonomy movements with suspicion.
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Foreign Influence: The involvement of international actors, including the United States and Russia, may shape the outcome of negotiations and the future political landscape of Syria.
Implications of Kurdish Push for Federalism in Syria
For Kurdish Autonomy
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Strengthened Political Position:
Kurdish groups are leveraging their military and political influence in northeastern Syria to demand constitutional recognition. This push for federalism gives them bargaining power in negotiations with the central government and may lead to more political autonomy in the future. -
Tension with Damascus:
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s government has long resisted decentralization. The Kurdish demand challenges Assad’s vision of a centralized state, likely leading to political friction. This could also hinder any genuine reconciliation between the Syrian government and Kurdish groups. -
Security Implications:
Kurdish autonomy may involve the establishment of local military and police forces. This could heighten regional tensions, especially in areas with other ethnic or religious minorities who might oppose Kurdish dominance or autonomy.
For Syrian Unity
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Potential for Regional Instability:
A shift toward federalism could fuel further ethnic and sectarian divisions within Syria. While it may empower Kurdish groups, it could also alienate other factions, potentially leading to instability or localized conflicts as various groups vie for more autonomy. -
Constitutional Struggles:
The debate over federalism is at the heart of the future Syrian constitution. If federalism is accepted, Syria could see a more fragmented political landscape. Conversely, a refusal to decentralize could fuel dissatisfaction and rebellion, further complicating Syria’s recovery post-conflict. -
Centralization vs. Decentralization:
The central government’s resistance to Kurdish autonomy reflects a broader question about Syria’s future political structure. The country is at a crossroads, with the potential for a more decentralized, federal system clashing with the Assad regime’s desire for centralized control.
For Regional Dynamics
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Impact on Turkey-Syria Relations:
Turkey is deeply concerned about Kurdish autonomy movements, viewing them as a threat due to its own Kurdish minority issue. Turkey may escalate its opposition to Kurdish self-rule in Syria, potentially leading to military interventions or diplomatic tensions with the Syrian government and its Kurdish allies. -
Geopolitical Influence:
International powers such as the U.S. and Russia, which have supported Kurdish groups in Syria, may need to reassess their strategies depending on how the Syrian government responds to Kurdish demands. Western powers may advocate for Kurdish rights, while Russia and Iran, allies of Assad, are likely to oppose any moves toward decentralization. -
Influence of Regional Powers:
Regional powers, including Iran and Saudi Arabia, may play a crucial role in either supporting or opposing Kurdish demands, depending on their broader interests in Syria. For instance, Saudi Arabia may support a more decentralized Syria as part of its broader efforts to weaken Iranian influence in the region.
For Syria’s Post-Assad Transition
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Long-Term Stability or Fragmentation:
If the Kurdish demand for federalism is met, it could provide a model for other regions of Syria to seek similar autonomy, leading to a more fragmented state. Alternatively, rejecting Kurdish autonomy might lead to prolonged conflict and instability, hindering Syria’s post-Assad reconstruction efforts. -
Negotiating Power of Other Factions:
The Kurdish push for a federal system could encourage other minority and ethnic groups in Syria, such as the Alawites, Druze, and Christians, to demand similar recognition and autonomy, reshaping Syria’s political structure in the years to come.
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