INDEPENDENT | Published November 7, 2024
An emboldened and protectionist Trump administration could trigger a fierce trade war with China and indirectly threatens Taiwan’s self-governance
When Joe Biden defeated Donald Trump in 2020 it took China almost a week to issue an official message to congratulate him, as the outgoing president challenged the election results. This time, as Mr Trump won a convincing victory to seal his return to the White House, the Chinese foreign ministry was far prompter in its response.
President Xi Jinping and president-elect Trump have already spoken over a phone call, according to reports. But the two leaders, who have a history of terse exchanges and strategic rivalry, are yet to announce their first interaction since Mr Trump’s return.
With the change in administration in the US, global leaders are closely watching how the incoming president navigates the China question, as how things play out between the two largest economies will have ripple effects not only for America but for the rest of the world.
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SOURCE: www.independent.co.uk
RELATED: Trump victory, Taiwan anxiety
BEIJING, CHINA – NOVEMBER 9: Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump attend a welcoming ceremony November 9, 2017 in Beijing, China. Trump is on a 10-day trip to Asia. (Photo by Thomas Peter-Pool/Getty Images)
POLITICO | Published November 7, 2024
Trump’s win creates a crisis for Taiwan
Beijing may reap a silver lining in President-elect Donald Trump’s electoral victory — a United States less willing to spend money and military might to defend Taiwan.
While Trump is likely to enact hefty tariffs on Chinese goods, he seems much less inclined to punish China for its ongoing threats toward the self-governing island. Trump has argued that Taiwan stole the U.S. semiconductor industry and suggested the island should pay for U.S. protection. And he isn’t alone in his party in deprioritizing Taiwan. The Republican National Committee’s 2024 party platform doesn’t mention Taiwan (the first time it’s been absent since 1980).
Policy-flip fears. That means Trump could upend decades of bipartisan commitment to defend Taiwan from Chinese aggression. President Joe Biden bolstered that policy with pledges of direct U.S. military intervention to fend off any possible Chinese invasion attempt. He also aided Taiwan through billions of dollars in weapon sales and moves to deepen unofficial diplomatic ties with the island through a U.S-Taiwan trade pact. Harris had pledged to continue that support.
Enter the dealmaker. If Trump considers that Taiwan policy less sacrosanct, he could decide to take China’s territorial claim to the island more seriously than previous U.S. presidents. “He would be willing to negotiate [Taiwan’s] return to China if they gave him something that mattered to him personally,” said Stephen Young, career U.S. diplomat and former director of the U.S. diplomatic outpost in Taipei.
What to expect. Taipei should brace for the same kind of pressure to boost its spending on defense that Trump has demanded of NATO member countries.
“He’s transactional,” said former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen. “He will say … you have to invest more in defense.” The island currently allocates 2.45 percent of its gross domestic product to defense spending.
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SOURCE: www.politico.eu
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