US President Donald Trump holds the hands of Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev and Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan as they shake hands between each other during a trilateral signing event, at the White House, in Washington, August 8, 2025.
| Published August 11, 2025
A Corridor Moves Borders—And Balance
On August 11, 2025, a landmark U.S.-brokered agreement signed at the White House aims to establish what has quickly become known as the Zangezur Corridor—a transit route connecting Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave via southern Armenia. The ambitious project, dubbed the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity,” seeks to foster new regional connectivity via infrastructure development. But for Iran, the corridor represents far more than a transport shortcut—it symbolizes an existential threat.
Iran’s Strategic Alarm Bells
1. Severing Iran’s Armenian Link
Tehran perceives the corridor as a deliberate effort to disrupt its only reliable overland connection to Armenia, raising fears of a shrinking strategic footprint on its northern frontier.
2. Losing Transit Leverage
Once a vital north-south transit hub, Iran risks being bypassed by the emerging “Middle Corridor,” which favors faster routes away from Iranian territory—a blow to its regional economic leverage.
3. Encroaching Western Influence
The corridor, slated to be leased to a U.S. firm for 99 years, signals the deepening of American—and potentially NATO—presence on Iran’s borders. Tehran views this as a prime example of external powers undermining its regional role.
Tehran Strikes a Defiant Pose
Ali Akbar Velayati, advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader, minced no words—branding the plan “an impossible notion” and warning that the corridor would turn into “a graveyard for Trump’s mercenaries.”
Simultaneously, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) issued publicly stern warnings, accusing the U.S. of destabilizing the South Caucasus and reiterating readiness for possible countermeasures.
Regional Chessboard: Stakes Beyond the Corridor
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Armenia’s Shift from Dependence
Historically reliant on Iran due to hostile ties with Turkey and Azerbaijan, Armenia may lose strategic necessity for Tehran if it increasingly aligns with Western powers. -
Resurgence of Pan-Turkic Pressures
A corridor facilitating Turkish and Azerbaijani influence risks rekindling Azerbaijani ethnic nationalism within Iran’s own borders, particularly among its significant ethnic Azerbaijani population. -
Israel’s Quiet Stake
While not noted in the Jerusalem Post article, analysis elsewhere highlights how Azerbaijan’s security collaboration with Israel casts another shadow over Tehran, as the corridor may further enable Israeli access along Iran’s frontier.
Implications
Here are the key implications of the Zangezur Corridor plan for Iran and the wider region, based on the Jerusalem Post report and related analysis:
1. Strategic Isolation of Iran
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Loss of the Armenia lifeline:
Iran’s direct land connection to Armenia is its only northern route that bypasses both Turkey and Azerbaijan. The corridor could either reduce or completely cut Tehran’s access, forcing reliance on less favorable, longer, or politically unfriendly routes. -
This limits Iran’s role as a north-south transit hub and reduces leverage over Caucasus trade.
2. Shift in Regional Power Balance
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Rise of a Turkey–Azerbaijan axis:
The corridor strengthens “pan-Turkic” connectivity from Turkey through Azerbaijan into Central Asia, bypassing Iran entirely. -
Could embolden Azerbaijani ethnic nationalism inside Iran, especially in the provinces with large Azerbaijani populations, creating potential internal instability.
3. Western (U.S./NATO) Encroachment
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A 99-year lease to a U.S. company means permanent Western infrastructure presence near Iran’s border.
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In Tehran’s eyes, this is a military and intelligence foothold, increasing surveillance and reducing Iran’s freedom of maneuver in the region.
4. Economic Bypass
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Trade flows between Europe, the Caucasus, and Central Asia could shift away from Iranian territory, undermining Tehran’s transit revenue.
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The “Middle Corridor” alternative route will compete directly with Iran’s north-south corridor ambitions.
5. Weakening of Iranian-Armenian Ties
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Armenia has historically relied on Iran for trade and strategic backing due to its tense relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan.
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With the corridor, Armenia may tilt further toward the West, reducing its dependence on Tehran and leaving Iran with fewer regional allies.
6. Security Risks and Israeli Factor
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Azerbaijan’s security partnership with Israel could bring Israeli intelligence and operational capabilities closer to Iran’s border.
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This adds another layer of security concern, as Tehran already accuses Baku of enabling Israeli activities in the Caucasus.
7. Potential for Escalation
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Iranian leaders and the IRGC have issued direct warnings that the corridor could become a flashpoint for conflict.
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If construction begins without Tehran’s consent or without security guarantees, it could prompt military posturing or proxy actions.
Overall Takeaway:
The Zangezur Corridor is more than an infrastructure project—it is a geopolitical reshaping of the South Caucasus. For Iran, it represents a triple blow: loss of strategic depth, erosion of economic leverage, and the encroachment of rival influence right on its doorstep. While Washington and Baku frame the route as a peace and prosperity initiative, Tehran sees it as a deliberate attempt to bypass and marginalize its role in regional trade and politics.
With Turkey and Azerbaijan gaining a direct land bridge, Armenia leaning West, and the potential for U.S. and Israeli presence near its borders, Iran faces the prospect of increased isolation and security risks. Unless carefully managed, the corridor could turn from a promised avenue of cooperation into yet another fault line in an already volatile region—one where missteps could escalate into confrontation.
SOURCES: THE JERUSALEM POST – Why Iran sees the Zangezur corridor between Armenia-Azerbaijan as an existential threat – analysis
IRAN INTERNATIONAL – IRGC warns of severe consequences over US-controlled Zangezur corridor
THE TIMES OF INDIA – Armenia-Azerbaijan deal: Khamenei aide says Iran will oppose peace corridor near its border; warns it may turn a ‘graveyard for Trumps’s mercenaries’
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