Fresh from China, emboldened Putin launches new phase in Ukraine war

Published September 9, 2025

Fresh from his high-profile summit in Beijing with Xi Jinping and Kim Jong-un, Vladimir Putin has returned to Moscow emboldened, launching Russia’s most intense assault on Ukraine since the war began. The meeting in China was more than symbolic—it was a carefully staged display of unity between three authoritarian powers, capped by a grand military parade in Beijing. While the summit projected strength and camaraderie, it also carried practical consequences: Putin pressed forward with negotiations on the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline and sought deeper financial backing from Beijing to cushion Russia against Western sanctions. Yet, beneath the show of solidarity, cracks remain—China–Russia trade has faltered sharply, signaling that lofty geopolitical ties may not fully translate into economic resilience. Still, Putin’s rhetoric was defiant: he rejected any path to peace and even warned that Western peacekeepers could be treated as legitimate military targets. The Beijing gathering underscored a shifting global order, where Moscow and Beijing draw closer while the prospects for peace in Ukraine fade further into the distance.

👥 Public/Political Reactions

• Ukraine’s Leadership: Ukrainian officials condemned Russia’s renewed escalation as a direct consequence of Putin’s high-profile summit in Beijing. Kyiv warned that Moscow’s bold strikes, including attacks on key government buildings, reflect a dangerous boost in confidence fueled by perceived Chinese backing. Officials also emphasized the need for continued Western military and financial support to counter Russia’s increasingly aggressive posture.

• Western Governments: Leaders in the U.S., U.K., and Europe expressed serious concern over the symbolic unity displayed between Russia, China, and North Korea. Many framed the summit as an attempt to create a geopolitical “axis” aimed at intimidating NATO members and deterring democratic nations from further supporting Ukraine. Some policymakers highlighted the potential risks of Beijing providing Russia with covert financial or logistical assistance.

• Policy and Sanctions Discussion: While direct military involvement by China remains unlikely, Western diplomats stressed that any material support—financial, technological, or energy-related—would face rapid sanctions. Analysts, however, note that China may quietly continue to bolster Russia’s economy and circumvent some of the West’s pressure, creating a gray area that could prolong the conflict.

• Ukrainian Public Reaction: Ordinary Ukrainians reacted with fatigue and frustration. Social media posts reflected anxiety over the recent strikes in Kyiv and a deepening sense that peace remains a distant prospect. Many citizens expressed concern that the conflict could intensify further as Russia draws strength from its ties with Beijing.

• Pro-Russian Online Commentary: Pro-Russian voices celebrated the summit as a public demonstration that Moscow is not isolated on the world stage. Commentators portrayed the gathering as a turning point toward a more multipolar world, where the West’s influence is challenged and Russia can continue its military operations with renewed confidence.

• Global Analysts’ Take: Experts noted the mixed signals coming from the summit—while the public display suggested solidarity, underlying economic struggles and cautious diplomacy, particularly from China, indicate that the alliance is more symbolic than operational. The reactions highlighted global uncertainty about the balance of power and the future trajectory of the Ukraine conflict.

⚠️ Resulting Effects

• Military Escalation in Ukraine: Following the summit, Russia intensified its attacks, including drone strikes and targeted assaults on key government buildings in Kyiv. Analysts suggest that Putin’s renewed confidence, bolstered by Beijing’s symbolic and financial support, is translating directly into more aggressive military operations.

• Heightened Tensions with the West: The summit has amplified concerns among NATO members and Western allies. Officials fear that the perceived alignment of Russia, China, and North Korea could embolden Moscow to push further in Ukraine and challenge Western influence more broadly. Diplomatic relations between the West and Beijing may also face increased strain as the world watches for any material support flowing to Russia.

• Economic Implications: Despite high-level talks, China–Russia trade has recently declined, highlighting structural economic limits in their partnership. While the summit reinforced intentions for long-term energy and financial collaboration, the immediate effect is mixed, with some analysts warning that economic difficulties could constrain Russia’s ability to sustain prolonged military campaigns.

• Impact on Peace Prospects: Putin’s rejection of meaningful negotiations and warnings against Western peacekeepers indicate a declining likelihood of diplomatic resolution. The escalation and public messaging signal that Russia may pursue a longer, more confrontational conflict, leaving Ukraine and its allies in a protracted state of uncertainty.

• Global Geopolitical Shift: The summit has contributed to the perception of a more multipolar world order, where traditional Western dominance is challenged by strategic showings of unity between authoritarian powers. While the alliance is largely symbolic for now, it has already influenced global policy discussions, defense planning, and economic strategies among both allies and adversaries.

• Public Sentiment: In affected regions and globally, the summit has sparked concern, anxiety, and debate. Ukrainians face renewed fears for safety and stability, Western populations worry about broader geopolitical consequences, and observers worldwide are watching closely to see how these partnerships might evolve.

🔮 Future Outlook

• Continued Russian Aggression: Analysts predict that Russia is likely to sustain, and potentially escalate, its military operations in Ukraine. Putin’s return from Beijing has reinforced a sense of confidence, suggesting that Kyiv and its allies may face intensified attacks in the coming months.

• China’s Role: While Beijing has so far limited its involvement to symbolic and financial support, future engagement could include expanded energy deals or discreet economic assistance to Russia. However, analysts caution that China is unlikely to commit to direct military involvement, preferring to maintain strategic leverage without overt confrontation with the West.

• Western Response: NATO and Western nations are expected to maintain, and potentially increase, military and financial support for Ukraine. Heightened sanctions targeting Russian and Chinese financial networks may be implemented if China materially assists Russia, creating a tense diplomatic environment.

• Economic Challenges: Russia may face continued economic constraints despite its partnerships, particularly given the recent downturn in China–Russia trade. Maintaining military campaigns while navigating sanctions and limited economic growth could strain Moscow’s long-term operational capabilities.

• Diplomatic Landscape: Peace negotiations remain highly unlikely in the near term. The summit underscores the difficulty of achieving a diplomatic resolution as Russia signals its willingness to continue hostilities and reject outside interference. The global focus may shift to managing containment, deterrence, and strategic balance rather than pursuing immediate peace.

• Global Strategic Implications: The Beijing summit marks a step toward a more multipolar world order, prompting countries worldwide to reassess alliances, defense strategies, and economic policies. The coming months could see increased polarization between Western democracies and authoritarian coalitions, shaping international relations for years to come.

🧩 Bottom Line:

Putin’s Beijing summit highlighted both the symbolism and the stakes of the Ukraine war’s next phase. While Russia, China, and North Korea projected a united front against the West, the reality of economic strain and cautious diplomacy suggests limits to their partnership. Yet for Ukraine and its allies, the message was unmistakable—Putin feels strengthened, not weakened, by his outreach to Beijing, and peace is nowhere in sight. The world now faces a more entrenched conflict, with Russia doubling down militarily, China weighing how far to lean into Moscow’s corner, and the West bracing for the consequences of a prolonged, more dangerous standoff.

SOURCES: THE TIMES – Fresh from China, emboldened Putin launches new phase in Ukraine war