The IRGC Threat Matrix: Iran’s $700 Million Proxy War Against the West

B-Roll of B-2 Spirit. (U.S. Air Force)
| Published June 22, 2025

The United States is moving several B-2 stealth bombers to the Western Pacific U.S. island of Guam in the second week since Israel’s attack on Iranian nuclear facilities and bases, U.S. officials reportedly confirmed. 

🧭 1. What’s the “$700 million proxy war” claim?

The figure comes from US State Department estimates: Iran reportedly provided Hezbollah with around $700 million annually, part of a broader proxy support network including Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, the Houthis, and Shiite militias across Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon. According to reports, Iran’s proxy strategy as a global threat matrix—but these proxies are a long-established component of Iran’s regional strategy dating back decades.


🔍 2. Scope of the IRGC-Quds Force’s network

  • The Quds Force (≈5,000 strong) specializes in funding, training, and equipping non-state groups abroad—Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis, Iraqi/Syrian militias .

  • Specialized units—Unit 700, Unit 190, Unit 18000—oversee logistics and arms smuggling through covert routes into Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, etc.

  • The result is a sprawling network exerting influence in at least six countries, capable of both regional and asymmetrical global operations.


📌3. Why now?

  • Recent Israeli strikes have targeted Iran’s nuclear, missile, drone-attack, and Quds Force leadership—including commanders tied to proxy coordination.

  • This campaign has disrupted Iran’s “no war, no peace” proxy equilibrium and diminished its deterrent posture.

  • Tehran is digging in, enhancing indigenous systems like Bavar‑373 air defenses, while also being pushed toward harsher asymmetric responses: sleeper cells in the West, cyber operations, Houthi maritime attacks, and more covert global sabotage.

 


📅 4. Concerns and Ramifications

  1. Greater IRGC domestic power
    Deepening involvement in Iran’s economy (oil, telecom, construction), giving it internal leverage—even as leadership weakens. A possible regime collapse could empower an even more hardline IRGC regime

  2. Global asymmetric threats
    Intelligence warnings are sounding that Iran could activate sleeper cells in the West, target dissidents or Israeli interests, and escalate cyberattacks .

  3. Regional destabilization
    Houthi attacks, heightened Hezbollah activity, and cyber proxies pose ongoing risks to shipping, regional security, and Western-aligned nations.

  4. Diplomatic tensions
    Allied concern over escalation is growing, with the US deploying B‑2 bombers to Guam and urging a need for de-escalation—even as nuclear talks are stalled.


🧩 Bottom Line

The $700 million per year claim has roots in solid estimates of Iranian funding to Hezbollah—but it’s one part of a vast, multifaceted proxy network built and managed for decades. Today’s Israeli strikes have shaken that system, triggering a likely shift toward asymmetric tactics and potentially unleashing secondary threats in both Middle Eastern and Western arenas.

Iran’s international status now hangs in a precarious balance: any attempt to topple its regime or nuclear deterrence invites not only internal consolidation under the IRGC but also serious global repercussions.


SOURCES: THE GATEWAY PUNDIT – The IRGC Threat Matrix: Iran’s $700 Million Proxy War Against the West
THE SUNDAY GUARDIAN – Iran’s proxies are a threat to peace in Middle East