“Taiwan Under Pressure: How China’s Strategy is Reshaping Regional Security in 2025”

Published September 7, 2025

China’s Strategy: Squeeze, Not Seize

China’s approach toward Taiwan in 2025 represents a shift from immediate military confrontation to a longer-term, multi-dimensional strategy designed to gradually weaken Taiwan’s political, economic, and social resilience. Analysts describe this as a “squeeze, not seize” strategy—applying constant pressure without triggering full-scale war, while keeping the option of invasion as a last resort.

1. Economic Pressure

China uses its economic influence to create dependence and vulnerability in Taiwan:

• Trade Leverage: Beijing restricts or incentivizes imports and exports with Taiwan, targeting key industries like semiconductors, electronics, and rare earth materials.

• Investment Control: Chinese state-linked companies selectively invest in Taiwanese sectors to sway corporate decisions and foster economic interdependence.

• Tourism and Supply Chains: Past restrictions on Chinese tourists and trade in sensitive sectors serve as both economic tools and psychological pressure points.

These measures aim to gradually destabilize Taiwan’s economy and create public pressure on its government without firing a single missile.

2. Diplomatic Isolation

China actively seeks to limit Taiwan’s participation in the international community:

• Undermining Recognition: Persuading or pressuring countries to sever formal diplomatic ties with Taiwan.

• Blocking International Organizations: Ensuring Taiwan’s exclusion from entities like the UN, WHO, and ICAO, reducing its global visibility.

• Influencing Multilateral Forums: Using economic or political leverage to sway international decisions against Taiwan’s interests.

This long-term isolation weakens Taiwan’s ability to mobilize international support in a crisis and creates a sense of inevitability about Chinese dominance.

3. Cyber and Information Operations

China increasingly relies on cyber and information warfare to erode Taiwan’s societal cohesion:

• Cyberattacks: Targeting government infrastructure, banking systems, and critical utilities to create disruption and uncertainty.

• Disinformation Campaigns: Spreading propaganda and false narratives to undermine public trust in Taiwan’s government and institutions.

• Psychological Pressure: Coordinated campaigns designed to create fear, doubt, and internal divisions among citizens.

By combining subtle cyber operations with overt messaging, China seeks to wear down Taiwan’s confidence while maintaining plausible deniability.

4. Military Readiness as Leverage

While China avoids immediate invasion, military preparations remain central:

• Frequent Drills: Simulated amphibious assaults, missile launches, and airspace incursions signal capability and intent.

• Modernization of Forces: Advanced missile systems, naval assets, and air capabilities are tailored for potential Taiwan scenarios.

• Strategic Ambiguity: Maintaining the possibility of force keeps Taiwan, the U.S., and allies guessing, thereby increasing political and psychological pressure.

This dual-track approach—coercive pressure paired with visible military capability—reinforces China’s strategic goal: bring Taiwan closer to compliance without triggering full-scale conflict.

5. Long-Term Objectives

The ultimate aim of the “squeeze, not seize” strategy is:

• To weaken Taiwan internally, through economic strain, political fragmentation, and societal uncertainty.

• To limit international support, ensuring any potential intervention is costly and complicated.

• To create favorable conditions for eventual unification under Beijing’s terms without provoking a war that could be catastrophic regionally or globally.

👥 Public/Political Reactions

🇹🇼 Taiwan: A Nation Divided Yet Resolute

Public Sentiment:

• Security Concerns: A significant portion of the Taiwanese population views China’s threat as the most pressing national security issue. A 2025 survey indicated that 33% of respondents identified “China’s threat to Taiwan” as the most serious national security threat in the next five years, surpassing concerns over issues like declining birthrates and economic stagnation. Among youth aged 18-29, 36% viewed China as the primary threat, indicating that Beijing’s united front efforts have not undermined young people’s security awareness.

Political Landscape:

• Recall Elections: In July 2025, Taiwanese voters rejected an attempt to remove 24 opposition lawmakers, dealing a blow to President Lai Ching-te’s party and its hopes for taking control of the parliament. This outcome highlighted the deep political divisions within Taiwan and the challenges faced by the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in consolidating support.

🇨🇳 China: A Nation’s Unified Front

Public Opinion:

• Divergent Views: Recent reports suggest that the Chinese public is divided over whether to seek global dominance or share leadership. This division reflects a broader debate within China about its role on the world stage and the means by which it should assert its influence.

Political Actions:

• Military Posturing: China has conducted aggressive military posturing, including simulated invasions of Taiwan and live-fire drills near Australia. These actions are part of China’s broader strategy to assert its dominance in the Indo-Pacific region.

🌐 International Reactions

• Global Alliances: The growing alliance between China and Russia presents a unique strategic challenge for countries like Australia, particularly as Beijing expands its military presence in the Indo-Pacific. Joint China-Russia military exercises raise alarms in Canberra and Washington, prompting urgent strategic considerations.

• Military Movements: On September 6, 2025, China condemned the passage of Canadian and Australian warships through the Taiwan Strait, labeling it a provocation. This incident underscores the heightened tensions in the region and the complex dynamics involving international naval operations.

Resulting Effects of China-Taiwan Tensions in 2025

The escalating tensions between China and Taiwan, combined with global reactions, are producing a range of effects on regional stability, security, and international relations.

⚠️ Regional Security and Military Implications

• Increased Militarization of the Taiwan Strait:
  China’s military drills and missile deployments, coupled with U.S. and allied naval presence, have turned the Taiwan Strait into a highly militarized zone. This increases the risk of accidental clashes and miscalculations.

• Defense Spending Surge:
  Taiwan is accelerating investments in advanced defense systems, asymmetric warfare capabilities, and civil defense measures, while neighboring countries like Japan and South Korea are reviewing their own military readiness in response to rising Chinese assertiveness.

• China-Russia Strategic Coordination:
  The growing China-Russia military cooperation, including joint exercises, could shift the regional power balance and complicate U.S. and allied deterrence strategies.

🌐 Economic and Trade Effects

• Trade Disruptions:
  Heightened tensions risk disrupting key shipping lanes in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait, which are vital for global trade, particularly semiconductors, electronics, and energy supplies.

• Investment Uncertainty:
  Foreign investors are cautious about Taiwan and neighboring economies due to potential escalation, leading to market volatility and slowed economic growth in the region.

• Supply Chain Reconfigurations:
  Companies are diversifying supply chains away from Taiwan and China to reduce exposure to geopolitical risks, potentially benefiting Southeast Asian economies.

🏛️ Political and Diplomatic Effects

• Stronger U.S.-Taiwan Ties:
  Continued Chinese pressure reinforces Taiwan’s reliance on U.S. security guarantees and diplomatic support, prompting deeper military cooperation, arms sales, and intelligence sharing.

• International Diplomatic Strains:
  Countries navigating relations with both China and Taiwan face growing pressure to take sides, which could strain international organizations and multilateral agreements.

• Domestic Political Polarization:
  In Taiwan, the threat from China intensifies domestic political debates, affecting elections, policymaking, and public support for government initiatives.

💡 Long-Term Strategic Effects

• Normalization of Coercion Tactics:
  China’s strategy of “squeezing” Taiwan—using economic, cyber, and diplomatic pressure rather than immediate military action—may normalize coercion as a tool in international relations.

• Potential Conflict Risk:
  Even without immediate invasion, miscalculations or escalatory incidents could trigger a localized or broader military conflict.

• Shift in Regional Alliances:
  Southeast Asian countries, Australia, and Japan may strengthen security alliances to counterbalance Chinese influence, reshaping the Indo-Pacific security architecture.

🔮 Future Outlook : China-Taiwan Tensions

Looking ahead, the situation between China and Taiwan in 2025 is likely to remain tense, with several possible scenarios that could shape regional and global dynamics:

⚔️ Military Scenario

• Continued Show of Force:
  China is expected to maintain frequent military drills, missile tests, and naval operations near Taiwan, signaling readiness without immediately invading. Taiwan will continue strengthening its asymmetric defense capabilities.

• Potential Flashpoints:
  Accidental incidents—such as misfired missiles, naval confrontations, or airspace violations—could escalate into a limited conflict. The U.S. and allies may increase joint exercises as deterrence measures.

🌐 Economic and Trade Scenario

• Supply Chain Diversification:
  Companies will likely continue moving critical manufacturing away from Taiwan and China, reinforcing Southeast Asia as an alternative production hub.

• Economic Pressure Tactics:
  China may increase economic coercion, such as trade restrictions or sanctions, to influence Taiwan’s policies, prompting Taipei to deepen economic ties with allies like the U.S., Japan, and the EU.

🏛️ Political Scenario

• Taiwan’s Internal Politics:
  Political polarization may continue as the DPP and opposition parties debate defense strategies, international alliances, and domestic reforms. Public opinion will play a crucial role in shaping government decisions.

• International Diplomacy:
  Countries will be pressured to take sides, potentially leading to diplomatic tensions or realignments in international forums like the UN and WTO.

🔮 Strategic Scenario

• “Squeeze Without Seize” Continues:
  China is likely to persist with its strategy of applying continuous pressure rather than immediate invasion, aiming to gradually weaken Taiwan’s international standing and internal cohesion.

• Long-Term Deterrence:
  Taiwan, supported by the U.S. and allies, will focus on deterrence and resilience, making any potential invasion highly costly for China.

• Regional Security Architecture:
  Strengthened alliances, particularly among Indo-Pacific democracies, could alter the strategic balance and create a more coordinated response to coercion and aggression.

 Bottom Line: China-Taiwan Tensions in 2025

The evolving situation between China and Taiwan in 2025 highlights a complex interplay of military posturing, political maneuvering, and international diplomacy. China’s strategy has shifted from overt threats of invasion to a long-term approach of “squeezing” Taiwan through economic, diplomatic, cyber, and information pressures. At the same time, military preparations and exercises signal that Beijing is keeping invasion as a contingency.

Taiwan has responded by strengthening its defense capabilities, promoting a distinct national identity, and cultivating international alliances, particularly with the United States and other democracies. Domestically, political divisions and electoral outcomes reflect the challenge of balancing security concerns with governance and public opinion.

The resulting effects extend beyond the Taiwan Strait: regional security dynamics are increasingly volatile, global supply chains face potential disruption, and international diplomatic tensions rise as countries navigate the delicate balance between supporting Taiwan and managing relations with China.

Looking ahead, the outlook remains cautiously tense. Direct conflict is not imminent, but the risk of accidental escalation is real. China is expected to continue applying subtle coercion, while Taiwan invests in deterrence, resilience, and alliances. The international community will remain vigilant, as developments in the Taiwan Strait have significant implications for regional stability, global trade, and strategic alignments.

In sum, the China-Taiwan situation is a high-stakes geopolitical chessboard, where careful maneuvering, both militarily and diplomatically, will determine the region’s trajectory in the coming years.

SOURCES: THE TIMES – How China could take control of Taiwan without a shot being fired

FOREIGN AFFAIRS – “How China Will Squeeze, Not Seize, Taiwan”