China’s weak consumption drags on economy as Trump tariff threat looms

Employees work on a production line making stuffed teddy bears for export at a factory in Lianyungang, in eastern China’s Jiangsu province on November 22, 2024.
CNN | Published December 16, 2024
Beijing Reuters — China’s industrial output growth quickened slightly in November, while retail sales disappointed, keeping alive calls for Beijing to ramp up consumer-focused stimulus as policymakers brace for more US trade tariffs under a second Trump administration.

The mixed data underline how challenging it will be for China’s leaders to mount a durable economic recovery heading into 2025, when trade relations with China’s biggest export market could worsen while domestic consumption also stays weak.

US President-elect Donald Trump’s vow to impose tariffs exceeding 60% on Chinese goods could push Beijing to accelerate plans to rebalance its $19 trillion economy, analysts said. This comes after over two decades of deliberation on transitioning from the current growth model focused on fixed-asset investment and exports to a consumption-driven one.

China’s industrial output in November grew 5.4% from a year earlier, faster than the 5.3% pace seen in October, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed on Monday, beating expectations for a 5.3% increase in a Reuters poll.

However, retail sales, a gauge of consumption, grew at its weakest pace in three months at 3.0% last month, much slower than a 4.8% rise seen in October. Analysts had predicted a 4.6% expansion.

“China’s economic policies have been amazingly consistent in promoting manufacturers over consumers despite clear signs of lasting weakness,” said Dan Wang, a Shanghai-based independent economist. “So, one can expect production capacity to strengthen, potentially agitating the overcapacity issue and motivating Chinese companies to seek overseas markets.”

 

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SOURCE: www.cnn.com

RELATED: China’s economy remains on trajectory of steady recovery in November: National Bureau of Statistics

Workers check the production process at a Seres Group’s super factory in Southwest China’s Chongqing city on May 20, 2024. Photo: Chen Tao/GT
Published December 16, 2024

China’s economy continued to recover steadily in November thanks to the synergy created by existing supportive policies and the incremental roll-out of new stimulus, with manufacturing and service sectors witnessing accelerated growth, together with an improvement in public expectations, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said on Monday.

In November, the total value added of the industrial enterprises above the designated size grew by 5.4 percent year-on-year, 0.1 percentage points faster than a month earlier, or up by 0.46 percent month-on-month.

Last month, the Services Production Index grew by 6.1 percent year-on-year. Specifically, the index’s information transmission, software and information technology services, leasing and business services and financial intermediation rose by 9.3 percent, 9.3 percent and 8.8 percent year-on-year, respectively, according to the NBS.

The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 4.38 trillion yuan ($601 billion) in November, up by 3.0 percent year-on-year, or up by 0.16 percent month-on-month, the latest data revealed.

Between January and November, the country’s gross fixed assets investment reached 46.58 trillion yuan, up 3.3 percent year-on-year. If excluding real estate sector investment, total investment in fixed assets in the first 11 months was up by 7.4 percent, the NBS said.

In the first eleven months, the urban surveyed unemployment rate averaged at 5.1 percent, 0.1 percentage points lower than the same period last year. In November, urban surveyed unemployment stood at 5.0 percent, unchanged from October.

 

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SOURCE: www.globaltimes.cn

 

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