Vladimir Putin attends a concert marking the eighth anniversary of Russia’s annexation of Crimea at the Luzhniki stadium in Moscow on March 18, 2022. (Mikhail Klimentyev /SPUTNIK/AFP via Getty Images)
THE KYIV INDEPENDENT | Published March 13, 2025
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s conditions for a ceasefire are unrealistic and tantamount to demanding that Ukraine disarm itself and surrender, analysts say.
Putin said on March 13 that Russia was ready to agree to the U.S.-backed 30-day-long ceasefire in Ukraine but then followed by listing a number of demands — a ban on Ukrainian mobilization or training of troops and a halt on Western military aid for Kyiv.
Putin also hinted that Ukrainian troops in Russia’s Kursk Oblast must surrender.
Later the same day, U.S. President Donald Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, met Putin in Moscow.
Trump reacted by saying on March 14, “We had very good and productive discussions with President Vladimir Putin of Russia yesterday, and there is a very good chance that this horrible, bloody war can finally come to an end.”
“It appears that Putin pretends to accept a ceasefire in principle, in order not to be criticized for being obstructive, but demands concessions as a precondition,” Richard Betts, professor emeritus of war and peace studies at Columbia University, told the Kyiv Independent.
“This is consistent with his previous demands that Ukraine must agree to concessions before Russia negotiates with it. In short, Putin appears to view negotiations for a peace agreement not as a bargaining process but as a process for arranging the conditions of Ukraine’s surrender.”
Playing Trump's game
Peter Rough, a senior fellow at Hudson Institute, argued that “Putin can’t afford to say no to Trump altogether but will add a series of conditions.”
“Putin may not be able to take Kyiv in this round of war, but he may be able to get the Donbas, and he will try to apply the Georgia model of hybrid war to take Kyiv later,” he said.
“His response to the ceasefire proposal is only the first in a series of counter-proposals to achieve that goal. The bottom line is he hasn’t changed his goal of subsuming Ukraine.”
William Wohlforth, a professor focusing on international relations at Dartmouth College, also said that “Putin’s highly conditional ‘unconditional’ acceptance of the ‘idea’ of a ceasefire is meant to play for time and see how much pressure the Trump administration is willing to exert, and on whom, to make progress.”
“To me, Putin’s comments in response to the ceasefire idea suggest a desire to sustain momentum in the improvement in relations with the Trump administration while at the same time not saying anything that would compromise his larger political objective with respect to Ukraine,” he added.
Putin's statement on 'root causes'
Putin said, “We agree with the proposals to cease hostilities, but they must lead to long-term peace and address the root causes of the crisis.”
Bettina Renz, a professor of international security at Nottingham University and the author of the book “Russia’s Military Revival,” argued that “his demand that the ‘root causes’ of the war need to be addressed as a precondition for the ceasefire agreement is particularly concerning.”
“Thinking back to February 2022, the ‘root causes’ of and justifications for the invasion listed by the Kremlin were sweeping and included, amongst other things, NATO enlargement since the 1990s, a denial of the legitimacy of the democratically elected Ukrainian government, and the ‘militarisation’ of Ukraine,” she said.
“If addressing these ‘root causes’ in Russia’s favor is a precondition for a 30-day ceasefire agreement in the Kremlin’s eyes, this is clearly unreasonable and unrealistic. At this point, it looks like the Kremlin will be prepared to agree to a ceasefire only under conditions that are ideal for Russia.”
Disarming and 'demilitarizing' Ukraine
Putin also claimed that Russian troops were “advancing on almost all sections of the front line.”
“Conditions are also being created there for us to encircle and block entire fairly large enemy units,” he said. “How will these 30 days be used? Will forced mobilization continue in Ukraine? Will weapons be supplied there? Will newly mobilized units undergo training? Or will none of this happen?”
Putin’s claims about Russia’s all-around advances were false.
Russia has been on the offensive in Donetsk Oblast since 2023. However, in recent months, its advance has slowed down in many areas, with Ukraine even conducting counteroffensives near the towns of Pokrovsk and Toretsk.
The Kremlin’s only major success in recent weeks was Ukraine’s withdrawal from a part of Russia’s Kursk Oblast as Russian troops cut off logistical routes in the region.
Putin’s demand that Ukraine should stop mobilization and training and should not receive Western military aid does not make any sense and will not be accepted by Kyiv, experts say.
“Of course, Ukraine won’t put limits on its own military forces. That would be suicidal,” Rough said. “It also won’t stop asking for and receiving weapons from the West. That would be suicidal as well. These are non-starters, and even Putin must understand that.”
Stefan Wolff, professor of international security at the University of Birmingham, told the Kyiv Independent that Putin “wants a weak Ukraine that is unable to defend itself and has no ability to resist Russian pressure.”
“The sooner he achieves that, the more likely it is that he can impose his own conditions,” he added. “Part of his original war aims was the demilitarization of Ukraine, and part of this is depriving Ukraine of Western military support.”
Renz argued that “Putin’s concerns over Ukraine using a 30-day ceasefire to regroup and rearm, and over the difficulties of monitoring such a ceasefire, refer to limitations affecting any ceasefire agreement.”
“Ceasefire agreements are always merely a first step in the cessation of armed conflict and a compromise, and their success can never be guaranteed,” she added. “Clearly, the Ukrainian leadership has similar concerns about a ceasefire agreement with Russia. However, in comparison to the Kremlin, the Ukrainian leadership willingly expressed the readiness to accept a ceasefire despite these risks.”
Volodymyr Ariev, a member of parliament from the opposition European Solidarity party, told the Kyiv Independent that Ukraine could put forward counter-demands.
For example, Kyiv could say that Russia should stop transporting extra military equipment to Ukraine and recruiting soldiers for its war effort, he added.
Alleged encirclement in Kursk Oblast
Putin also claimed that “in the coming days, a physical blockade (of Ukrainian troops in Russia’s Kursk Oblast) will take place, meaning that no one will be able to leave at all.”
“There will only be two options — surrender or perish,” he said. “If we cease hostilities for 30 days, what does that mean? That everyone there will be allowed to leave without a fight? Are we supposed to let them go after they have committed numerous crimes against civilians?”
No evidence has been provided for Putin’s claim about alleged Ukrainian war crimes in Kursk Oblast, and there is no independent confirmation that Ukrainian troops are at risk of being blockaded.
Everything that Putin said is either false or has no immediate confirmation.
However, Trump has picked up some of the claims. On March 14, he urged Putin to “spare” the allegedly surrounded Ukrainian troops.
Ukraine’s General Staff denied Trump’s claim that Ukrainian troops in Kursk Oblast were surrounded.
Wolff said that Putin “clearly wants the troops out to deprive Ukraine of a critical bargaining chip (Kursk Oblast), but he also would probably prefer taking as many of them as prisoners rather than allowing them to strengthen Ukraine’s front lines elsewhere.”
“Perhaps Putin would have been more pliable if these negotiations had happened at some other time,” a Russian author living in exile who asked to remain anonymous out of security concerns told the Kyiv Independent. “But now, against the backdrop of the events in the Kursk region and the latest statements and steps of the Trump administration, he seems to have only become more confident of his future impunity.”
Monitoring a ceasefire
Putin also raised the question of how violations of the ceasefire would be monitored and how the ceasefire would be enforced.
Ukraine has also called for resolving this issue and suggested that European peacekeepers be deployed to enforce the ceasefire.
However, the Kremlin has rejected the deployment of Western peacekeepers.
Wolff argued that it “makes sense from the Kremlin’s perspective to ask for ‘neutral’ observers because it weakens any potential security guarantees that Ukraine could get from having Western peacekeepers deployed.”
“Putin’s statement on the ceasefire proposal does not suggest readiness for peace, or at least not for a peace that would involve any kind of compromise from the Russian side,” Renz said.
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SOURCE: www.kyivindependent.com
RELATED: Putin says Russia will spare Ukrainian forces in Kursk if they surrender
Putin’s claim comes after US President Donald Trump urged him to avoid a ‘horrible massacre’. Kyiv denies its forces are encircled there.
A Russian self-propelled multiple rocket launcher is fired toward Ukrainian position at an undisclosed location in the Kursk region border area [File: Russian Defence Ministry Press Service via AP]
AL JAZEERA | Published March 13, 2025
Russia will spare the lives of Ukrainian soldiers in its western Kursk region if Kyiv orders them to surrender, President Vladimir Putin has said after US President Donald Trump urged him to avoid a “horrible massacre” there.
Ukraine denied its forces in Kursk were encircled, describing the claim as a Russian fabrication, but President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Friday described the situation for Ukrainian forces there as “very difficult”.
Trump wrote on social media that he had asked the Russian president to spare the lives of thousands of Ukrainians who he said were “completely surrounded” and vulnerable.
“I have strongly requested to President Putin that their lives be spared. This would be a horrible massacre, one not seen since World War II,” he said.
Putin, addressing his Security Council, said he had read Trump’s appeal and understood the call by Trump to take humanitarian considerations into account.
“In this regard, I would like to emphasise that if [the Ukrainian troops] lay down their arms and surrender, they will be guaranteed life and decent treatment in accordance with international law and the laws of the Russian Federation,” Putin said.
“To effectively implement the appeal of the US president, a corresponding order from the military-political leadership of Ukraine is needed for its military units to lay down their arms and surrender.”
Ukrainian forces in Russia’s Kursk have come under growing pressure in recent days, with a Russian counteroffensive wresting much of the land Ukraine captured there last summer, denying Kyiv a vital point of leverage over Moscow in any potential truce talks.
Russian troops have also crossed the frontier into Ukrainian territory in the Sumy region facing Kursk.
Ceasefire talks
Trump’s comments come after his Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff spoke to Putin in Moscow on Thursday about a US proposal for a 30-day interim ceasefire.
Kyiv has said it was ready to accept the proposal, while Putin on Thursday said he supported the idea of a ceasefire but presented a series of conditions that would need to be met before Moscow would agree to the truce.
Trump described the talks as “very good and productive” and said there was a “very good chance that this horrible, bloody war can finally come to an end”.
Zelenskyy said that he saw a good chance to end the war with Russia and urged the US and other allies to apply pressure on Moscow.
“Right now, we have a good chance to end this war quickly and secure peace. We have solid security understandings with our European partners,” Zelenskyy said on X.
Speaking to reporters, he reiterated his belief that Russian President Vladimir Putin will delay reaching a ceasefire as long as possible.
“If there is a strong response from the United States, they will not let them play around. And if there are steps that Russia is not afraid of, they will delay the process,” Zelenskyy said.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Friday that Putin – who has expressed concern that Ukraine would exploit any truce to regroup – had used the late-night meeting with Witkoff to convey information and “signals” to Trump.
“There are certainly reasons to be cautiously optimistic,” Peskov said, “[Putin] said that he supports President Trump’s position in terms of a settlement, but he voiced some questions that need to be answered together”
Peskov said the timing of a phone call between the presidents would be worked out once Witkoff had briefed Trump.
Putin has said he wants Ukraine to drop its ambitions to join NATO, Russia to control the entirety of the four Ukrainian regions it has claimed as its own, and the size of the Ukrainian army to be limited.
He has also made clear he wants Western sanctions eased and a presidential election to be held in Ukraine, which Kyiv says is premature while martial law remains in force.
Tony Brenton, Former British ambassador to Russia said that the war in Ukraine began disastrously for the Russians and has also cost the Kremlin a lot of money, leaving Putin keen to “draw a conclusion which is sellable to his people”.
“But there are some Russian worries about it. First of all, they are winning that battle in Kursk and they might want to finish that off before the ceasefire takes effect. Secondly, a ceasefire doesn’t mean everybody stops shooting … You should have some sort of system … that is policed,” he told Al Jazeera.
“So in those terms, there are delays and negotiations to get the ceasefire in place,” he said.
“I think there is a real chance actually … that one can be optimistic that we will get the ceasefire … in the next few weeks and there is again going to be a negotiation about long-term peace,” he added.
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