Germany’s chancellor, Friedrich Merz, appears with Britain’s prime minister, Keir Starmer, during a visit to the U.K. on Thursday July 17, 2025. Stefan Rousseau/AP
| Published July 18, 2025
Why Merz’s “Europe has been free‑riding” comment matters
During his official UK visit in mid‑July 2025 to sign the Kensington Treaty, Chancellor Friedrich Merz made a striking declaration: “Europe has been free‑riding on U.S. defense,” and “Americans guaranteed our freedom and security.” He acknowledged that Europe historically underinvested in its own defense and that the U.S. has grown less willing to shoulder that burden
Underpinning his remarks is a geopolitical shift: U.S. strategic focus is pivoting toward Asia, leaving Europe more responsible for its own security. Merz cited what he sees as waning U.S. engagement—especially under the Trump administration—and stressed Europe must act now .
A bold pivot in German and European defense policy
Merz’s comments represent a stark departure from Germany’s postwar policy of military restraint under the NATO umbrella. He is now pushing a sweeping agenda to build a sovereign European defense posture, potentially independent of NATO’s current structure .
Key policy shifts include:
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Lifting Germany’s “debt brake” to exempt defense spending above 1 % of GDP, enabling borrowing to finance a rapid military build-up
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Supporting a €500 bn infrastructure and defense fund, covering green energy and military investment over the next decade
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Striving to meet a NATO target of 3.5 % of GDP in “hard” defense spending by 2029.
These measures mark Germany’s most ambitious rearmament since the Cold War and signal its intent to lead European security integration
Context: Russia, Ukraine, and U.S. realignment
The Kremlin’s continued aggression in Ukraine has underscored Europe’s vulnerabilities. Western allies increasingly question America’s reliability—especially after recent U.S. policy reversals and rhetoric. Merz viewed this as a wake-up call for Europe to stop assuming U.S. defense commitments are inexhaustible
Despite his Atlanticist background, Merz now argues that European countries must “take care for your own”, echoing broader NATO pressure on allies to increase their share of defense funding
Reactions across Europe and transatlantic priorities
The reaction in Brussels and European capitals has been cautiously supportive. France, Poland, and the Baltic states welcome Germany assuming a more assertive role; for them, Merz’s vision bolsters hopes for a stronger, more proactive European pillar of defense .
However, analysts caution that hitting arbitrary GDP targets (e.g. 5 % by 2035) won’t inherently boost economic or strategic outcomes. Success will depend on smart execution—prioritizing equipment, R&D, and domestic arms production rather than just manpower or infrastructure
What comes next: Risks and opportunities
| Opportunity | Risk |
|---|---|
| Germany & EU assume leadership in European security and defense integration. | Political backlash domestically over increased debt and militarization, especially given Germany’s historical aversion to rearmament. |
| Less reliance on unpredictable U.S. policies and more regional autonomy. | Overstretching national budgets; inflation and rising debt costs forecast from €500 bn spending. |
| A strengthened European industrial base through more domestic arms production. | Poorly targeted spending could yield low returns—debate on economic multiplier effects looms . |
Merz’s trajectory will be closely watched ahead of the next NATO summit and the unfolding involvement of other EU powers in shaping collective defense strategy.
Implications:
Here are the key implications of German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s statement that “Europe has been free-riding on U.S. defense”—from military strategy to political, economic, and global consequences:
🛡️ 1. Strategic Military Implications
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European Defense Autonomy Gains Momentum
Merz’s admission fuels efforts to build a more independent European security architecture, less reliant on NATO and especially on U.S. military guarantees. -
Shift Toward European-Led Deterrence
With Germany now targeting 3.5% of GDP on defense by 2029 and even 5% by 2035, the EU may become a primary military player, especially in Eastern Europe and the Arctic. -
Stronger UK-Germany Defense Axis
The newly signed Kensington Treaty with the UK marks a deeper bilateral alliance—possibly becoming a blueprint for post-NATO European security pacts.
💰 2. Economic Implications
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Debt Brake Suspension → More Borrowing
Germany’s plans to lift its constitutional “debt brake” to finance defense means billions in new borrowing—raising concerns over inflation, interest rates, and long-term fiscal discipline. -
Defense Industry Boom
Domestic arms manufacturers and defense contractors stand to benefit from long-term contracts—particularly if the EU coordinates joint procurement and R&D (like fighter jets, missile systems, drones). -
Opportunity Cost Risk
Massive defense spending could divert funds from welfare, climate goals, or innovation. If mismanaged, the public could turn against “militarization” and increased national debt.
🏛️ 3. Political Implications
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Rising Nationalist vs. Federalist Tensions in Europe
Some EU nations may resist a German-led military push, fearing it undermines national sovereignty. Others (Poland, France) may welcome it as leadership in a time of need. -
Trump-Influenced Policy Realignment
Merz’s rhetoric aligns with Donald Trump’s recurring demand that Europe pay its fair share. A potential Trump second term in 2025–2029 may reinforce this strategic decoupling. -
Backlash at Home
Germany’s pacifist-leaning public may resist a rapid military build-up. Opposition parties and civil society groups might frame this as abandoning decades of postwar restraint.
🌐 4. Transatlantic and Global Implications
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U.S.–Europe Strategic Drift Accelerates
If Europe truly invests in defense autonomy, the post-WWII U.S.–Europe alliance may become more transactional or fragmented. -
NATO’s Role Could Be Redefined or Weakened
A more militarily self-reliant EU might reorient NATO as a political/diplomatic forum, especially if U.S. funding or leadership diminishes. -
Geopolitical Rebalancing Toward Asia
The U.S. will focus more heavily on China, Taiwan, and the Indo-Pacific—with Europe securing its own neighborhood (Ukraine, Baltic Sea, North Africa).
🧭 5. Historical and Cultural Implications
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Germany Breaks from Postwar Doctrine
Since 1945, Germany has largely avoided heavy militarization due to its Nazi-era legacy. Merz’s policy marks a psychological and historical turning point—inviting both support and anxiety across Europe. -
Potential for New Cold War Paradigm
With NATO weakened, Russia emboldened, and China rising, we may be witnessing the dismantling of the post-Cold War order and the birth of multipolar power blocs.
Overall Takeaway:
Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s frank admission that Europe has been “free-riding on U.S. defense” marks a historic inflection point in the postwar Western alliance. For decades, European security depended heavily on American military strength—first during the Cold War, then in the fragile aftermath of the Soviet collapse. But as the U.S. pivots toward Asia and reconsiders its commitments abroad, Merz is now openly acknowledging what many strategists have long feared: Europe must stand on its own feet—or risk standing alone.
His proposed reforms—ramping up Germany’s defense spending, suspending debt constraints, and forging new defense partnerships—signal the most significant shift in German foreign policy since reunification. They offer Europe a chance to move from dependency to deterrence, from passivity to preparedness.
Yet the path ahead is fraught with risk. Economic strain, political resistance, and historical anxieties could all undermine this bold vision. Success will depend not just on spending more—but on spending wisely, building trust among allies, and ensuring that Europe’s new strategic autonomy strengthens, rather than fractures, the transatlantic alliance.
Ultimately, Merz’s comments challenge Europe to confront a difficult truth: security cannot be outsourced forever. In this new era of geopolitical uncertainty, Europe must either rise to defend itself—or continue paying the price for waiting too long.
