Growing Closeness Between Russia and the Taliban: A Paradigm Shift?

Russia is moving to strengthen its relationship with Afghanistan’s Taliban-led government, marking a significant shift in its foreign policy. In March 2025, Russia’s Supreme Court received a petition from Prosecutor General Igor Krasnov to lift the Taliban’s designation as a terrorist organization, with a hearing scheduled for April 17.

Historically, Russia opposed the Taliban, supporting the Northern Alliance against them in the late 1990s. However, since the Taliban’s return to power in 2021, Russia has maintained diplomatic engagement, keeping its embassy in Kabul operational and hosting Taliban representatives at various forums. ​

This evolving relationship is driven by Russia’s strategic interests, including concerns over regional security threats from groups like the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP). By engaging with the Taliban, Russia aims to position itself as a key player in ensuring stability in Central Asia. ​

Economically, Russia is interested in Afghanistan’s untapped natural resources, estimated to be worth over $3 trillion, and infrastructure projects like the trans-Afghan railway. These ventures could enhance Russia’s influence in the region and provide economic benefits. ​

However, challenges remain. The Taliban’s internal divisions and ongoing security issues, including attacks by ISKP, raise questions about their reliability as partners. Additionally, the Taliban’s continued enforcement of repressive policies, particularly regarding women’s rights, poses moral and diplomatic dilemmas for Russia. ​

In summary, Russia’s growing closeness with the Taliban reflects a pragmatic approach to its geopolitical and economic interests in Central Asia, aiming to balance security concerns with opportunities for influence and resource exploitation.​

Here are the implications of Russia’s growing closeness with the Taliban, broken down by category:

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🧭 1. Strategic Realignment in Central Asia

• Russia is redefining its regional alliances, moving from historical opposition to pragmatic cooperation with the Taliban.

• This may position Russia as a key power broker in post-U.S. Afghanistan, potentially countering Western influence in the region.

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💣 2. Security Implications

• Russia aims to contain threats like ISIS-K (ISKP) by working with the Taliban, whom it now sees as a stabilizing force.

• However, this approach is risky: the Taliban’s fragmented leadership and ongoing insurgent activity could backfire, undermining security instead of enhancing it.

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🌍 3. Diplomatic Fallout

• Removing the Taliban from Russia’s terrorist list could strain relations with Western nations, especially those still wary of recognizing the Taliban regime.

• It could also signal to other nations — particularly in Central Asia — that engagement with the Taliban is becoming diplomatically acceptable.

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💰 4. Economic Opportunities and Risks

• Russia is eyeing Afghanistan’s estimated $3 trillion in natural resources, along with infrastructure projects like the trans-Afghan railway.

• While these could boost Russia’s regional influence and provide economic gains, instability and lack of legal frameworks under Taliban rule may complicate long-term investments.

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🧕 5. Human Rights Trade-Off

• Closer ties mean Russia risks international criticism for legitimizing a regime that suppresses women’s rights and civil liberties.

• This reflects a broader trend in Russian foreign policy: prioritizing strategic and economic gains over democratic or humanitarian concerns.

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🛰️ 6. Global Power Competition

• The shift reflects Russia’s intention to fill the vacuum left by the U.S. and NATO withdrawal from Afghanistan.

• It is also part of Russia’s broader effort to align with non-Western regimes as part of a multipolar world order, possibly alongside China and Iran.

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Russia’s growing ties with the Taliban mark a major strategic pivot — one that reflects Moscow’s desire to expand its influence in Central Asia while directly challenging Western diplomatic norms. By embracing the Taliban, Russia is choosing pragmatism over principle, prioritizing security control, resource access, and geopolitical leverage over human rights concerns and historical enmities.

This move underscores a broader global trend: as the West retreats from certain regions, powers like Russia are stepping in — not necessarily to promote peace, but to reshape the balance of power in their favor.