The Numbers Are in — and It’s Horrible News for the Gender Mafia

| Published May 12, 2025

A recent AP-NORC poll indicates that approximately half of U.S. adults approve of President Donald Trump’s handling of transgender issues, surpassing his overall approval rating. The poll, conducted from May 1–5, 2025, reveals significant public support for certain aspects of Trump’s policies, while highlighting divisions on others.

A majority (66 percent) of Americans oppose Medicare or Medicaid covering “gender affirming” treatments for people under the age of 19, while only 16 percent supported the idea. Even for adults above 19, 53 percent oppose government funding.

Key Findings:

• Biological Determination of Gender: About 68% of Americans agree with Trump that gender is determined by biological characteristics at birth. This perspective is particularly prevalent among Republicans (89%) and Independents (74%), with a notable portion of Democrats (54%) also holding this view.

• Opposition to Gender-Affirming Care Funding: A majority, 66%, oppose the use of Medicare or Medicaid to cover gender-affirming treatments for individuals under 19, and 53% oppose such funding for adults over 19.

• School Bathroom Policies: 55% of Americans are against allowing transgender students to use bathrooms that align with their gender identity.

• Parental Notification in Schools: 43% support requiring public school teachers to inform parents if their child identifies as transgender or nonbinary at school, while 28% oppose and 28% remain neutral.

These findings suggest a complex landscape where public opinion is divided on various aspects of transgender rights and policies. While there is substantial support for certain positions, other areas reflect significant opposition or ambivalence.

The poll’s margin of error is ±4 percentage points, and it surveyed 1,175 adults. The results underscore the ongoing national debate over transgender issues and the policies surrounding them.

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Pros and Cons of Public Opinion on Trump’s Handling of Transgender Issues

Pros:

1. Clear Public Support on Certain Policies:

   • Biological Gender Determination: A strong majority (68%) agrees with Trump’s stance that gender is biologically determined, aligning with conservative views.

   • Opposition to Gender-Affirming Care for Minors: 66% of Americans oppose funding gender-affirming care for individuals under 19, which may resonate with those concerned about protecting minors.

   • School Bathroom Policies: 55% of Americans oppose allowing transgender students to use bathrooms matching their gender identity, indicating a public preference for traditional policies.

2. Reflects Growing Conservative Consensus:

   • The poll highlights the increasing prominence of conservative viewpoints, especially within the Republican and Independent demographics.

   • Trump’s stance resonates with a broad swath of the electorate, indicating potential electoral support from these groups.

3. Focus on Parental Rights:

   • The poll finds significant support for requiring parental notification in schools, reflecting concerns about parental rights and control over their children’s education and well-being.

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Cons:

1. Polarizing Effect:

   • The results demonstrate significant division in public opinion, especially among Democrats (54% agreeing with the biological gender stance), suggesting that Trump’s policies could alienate parts of the electorate, especially progressive or LGBTQ+ advocates.

   • The focus on traditional views may further deepen the divide between conservative and liberal groups on sensitive issues like gender identity.

2. Disapproval of Gender-Affirming Care for Adults:

   • A slim majority (53%) opposes gender-affirming care for adults, which could be seen as limiting individual autonomy and the rights of transgender people to access medical care.

   • Critics may argue that this stance overlooks the medical and psychological needs of adults seeking such care.

3. Potential Backlash from LGBTQ+ Communities:

   • Trump’s policies, particularly on bathroom access and gender-affirming care, could be viewed as discriminatory by LGBTQ+ advocacy groups, possibly leading to protests or legal challenges.

   • The focus on restricting certain rights might exacerbate the sense of marginalization felt by transgender individuals and their supporters.

4. Parental Notification Debate:

   • While 43% support parental notification, the remaining public is divided or opposed, which suggests tension between parents’ rights and the autonomy of students in public schools. Some may see this as undermining the privacy and safety of LGBTQ+ students.

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Conclusion:

The public opinion on Trump’s handling of transgender issues presents a complex and divided landscape. While his stance on biological gender determination, opposition to gender-affirming care for minors, and school bathroom policies resonates strongly with conservative and independent voters, it also sparks significant polarization. The support for parental notification in schools reflects growing concerns about parental rights but also raises questions about student autonomy and privacy.

The findings underscore the ongoing cultural and political divide in the U.S. over transgender rights and policies. Trump’s approach aligns with the views of a substantial portion of the population but risks alienating progressive groups and LGBTQ+ advocates. As the debate continues, these issues will remain a focal point in the national discourse, potentially influencing both policy and electoral outcomes in the years ahead.

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SOURCES – TOWNHALL – The Numbers Are in — and It’s Horrible News for the Gender Mafia

LA TIMES – Transgender issues are a strength for Trump, AP-NORC poll finds

LGBTQ NATION – Most Americans support Donald Trump when it comes to trans issues

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