Former National Security Council head Yaakov Nagel at the Cybertech Israel Conference and Exhibition in Tel Aviv, on January 26, 2016. Photo by Miriam Alster/FLASH90.
ALL ISRAEL | Published January 7, 2025
Commission appears to express pessimistic view of relations between new Syrian government and Turkey
An Israeli government commission published a strident warning about the possibility of conflict with Turkey in its latest report.
The “Committee for the Evaluation of the Defense Establishment Budget and the Balance of Power” is led by former National Security Council head Yaakov Nagel, and is often referred to in Hebrew media as the Nagel Commission or Nagel Committee.
The commission was established in 2023 before the outbreak of the war, to create recommendations for the defense ministry regarding the possible areas of conflict facing Israel in the years ahead.
While the report focuses the most attention on Iran, as the largest threat facing Israel in the coming years, it also contained a sober warning about the possibility of conflict with Turkey, especially following the overthrow of the regime of Bashar al-Assad and the rise of Turkish-affiliated rebel groups to lead the new government.
The report briefly addresses Turkey’s complex status in the region and its changing relations with Israel over the past few years. Turkey is a major regional player with a significant military presence outside its own borders. This is most clearly seen in the arenas of Syria and Libya, where its actions have affected the situation on the ground.
The commission says that Israel must take into account the strategic challenges posed by Turkey, noting the changing balance of power following Israel’s war with Hezbollah and Hamas, as well as Ankara’s ability to leverage its diplomatic and military ties to influence other countries in the region.
Specifically, the commission recommended that Israel prepare broadly for possible scenarios of military confrontation in the northern region (Syria), where Turkey has made a significant investment of money and forces.
“The problem will intensify if the Syrian power becomes, in a practical way, a Turkish emissary, as part of the realization of the Turkish dream of returning the Ottoman crown to its former glory,” the report stated.
“The presence of Turkish emissaries, or Turkish forces in Syria, is liable to deepen the direct danger of Turkish-Israeli hostilities.”
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SOURCE: www.allisrael.com
RELATED: Israel must prepare for potential war with Turkey, Nagel Committee warns
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan addresses his supporters following his victory in the second round of the presidential election at the Presidential Palace in Ankara, Turkey May 29, 2023. (credit: UMIT BEKTAS/REUTERS)
JERUSALEM POST | Published January 7, 2025
The committee, established by the government, warns that Turkey’s ambitions to restore its Ottoman-era influence could lead to heightened tensions with Israel, possibly escalating into conflict.
Israel must prepare for a direct confrontation with Turkey, according to the Nagel Committee’s latest report on the defense budget and security strategy.
The committee, established by the government, warns that Turkey’s ambitions to restore its Ottoman-era influence could lead to heightened tensions with Israel, possibly escalating into conflict.
The report highlights the risk of Syrian factions aligning with Turkey, creating a new and potent threat to Israel’s security.
“The threat from Syria could evolve into something even more dangerous than the Iranian threat,” the report states, warning that Turkish-backed forces might act as proxies, fueling regional instability.
The committee’s assessment comes amid Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s increasingly assertive policies in the region, which some analysts view as antagonistic to Israel’s interests.
A call for preparation
The Nagel Committee submitted its recommendations to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Israel Katz, and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich on Monday, outlining a comprehensive strategy to address emerging threats.
The committee proposes increasing the defense budget by up to NIS 15 billion annually over the next five years to ensure the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) are equipped to handle challenges posed by Turkey, alongside other regional threats.
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SOURCE: www.m.jpost.com
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