Published October 26, 2024
Wall Street analysts have been on edge for weeks over the scope of Israel’s planned retaliation strike after Iran’s large-scale missile barrage on Oct. 1, which may include F-35 stealth fighter jets striking Iran’s nuclear facilities, missile sites and or oil infrastructure. The geopolitical risk premium for Brent crude has faded in recent weeks as US Secretary of State Antony Blinken runs around the Middle East to ensure that IDF jets hold off on any strikes against Iran until after the US presidential elections.
Israel has considered a slew of retaliatory options, reportedly including fighter jets striking Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ high-value military targets, as well as Iran’s leadership, financial networks, oil infrastructure, and nuclear program sites.
About a week ago, Axios reported the leak of a highly classified US intelligence report that revealed new details about Israel’s plans for retaliation against Iran. This leak delayed IDF’s strike.
IDF’s most strategic move would be to dismantle the IRGC’s command and control networks and centers by targeting key officials, missile sites, and then financial networks. Also, paralyze Tehran’s ability to export crude via dark tanker fleets to China (source of revenues). All while trying to avoid a humanitarian crisis. This will be very challenging for Israel.
There is no doubt that after IDF strikes Iran, IRGC will respond in a tit-for-tat effort…
“The Iranian Foreign Minister’s ongoing diplomatic flurry in the Gulf notwithstanding, Iran will have little choice but to follow up on its threats to strike Gulf energy infrastructure once Iran’s own energy facilities come under attack and it becomes clear – again – that Iran lacks the ability to cause commensurate damage in Israel…This is easy to envision before the end of the year,” Scott Modell, CEO at Rapidan Energy Advisors, wrote in a statement.
Bloomberg noted Friday morning that people familiar with the matter indicate Biden admin officials have signaled to Saudi Arabia they’re on standby and ready to defend the Kingdom against an attack by Iran or its proxies.
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SOURCE: www.zerohedge.com
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US Presses for Gaza Settlement as Negotiators Prepare to Meet
Published October 24, 2024
(Bloomberg) — Negotiators between Israel and Hamas will meet in the coming days, as they make a renewed effort to end the devastating conflict in Gaza, according to the US and Israel.
The US is exploring different options to restart stalled talks between the warring parties and secure the release of hostages held by the Palestinian militant group, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in Qatar on Thursday.
Israel said the chief of its Mossad intelligence agency would meet with the main negotiators for the US and Qatar in Qatar next week.
An official of Hamas, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly changed his position and is prolonging the war to keep his right-wing governing coalition together. The Israeli leader has denied that and says it’s Hamas that has shown no real willingness to end the war.
Adding to uncertainty about the prospects for new talks, two hardliners in the Israeli cabinet, Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, said Thursday night that they opposed revived negotiations. Their objections matter because Netanyahu depends on them to maintain his fragile political coalition.
Blinken arrived in London Thursday night on a flight from Qatar, and plans to meet separately with the foreign ministers of Jordan, Lebanon and the United Arab Emirates on Friday.
He met Netanyahu in Israel on Tuesday and Saudi Arabia’s de facto leader, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, in Riyadh on Wednesday. It was his 11th trip to the Middle East since the war in Gaza began.
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SOURCE: www.bnnbloomberg.ca
