JING DAILY |
Published November 1, 2024
With a consequential US election looming and strategic stimulus measures in play, China could be poised for a rebound as 2025 approaches.
Americans head to the polls on November 5, the outcome will have significant implications for China given the delicate balance between the world’s two largest economies.
A Harris presidency will essentially be an extension of the previous administration, which will likely mean a continuation of a steady, moderately upward trajectory for China’s economy in general. Conversely, a Donald Trump presidency, which seems to be in the cards, will lead to an immediate recalibration in US-China relations.
Given that Trump’s previous administration was marked by tariffs and aggressive protectionist policies, many speculate a net negative impact for China. However, I see it differently based on China’s need to stay apace with the US economy.
A Trump win will likely lead to an immediate economic boost in the US, and his transactional approach with other countries suggests he would engage with China to “make deals” rather than isolate it. This combination will likely prompt China to not only increase the frequency of its stimulus measures but may also prompt the creation of a mega package to spur the economy.
A Trump win will likely lead to an immediate economic boost in the US, and his transactional approach with other countries suggests he would engage with China to “make deals” rather than isolate it. This combination will likely prompt China to not only increase the frequency of its stimulus measures but may also prompt the creation of a mega package to spur the economy.
Regardless of what may come next year, China’s economy will remain in sharp focus as analysts assess the opportunities and challenges ahead.
Prevailing caution #
Recovery in the world’s second-largest economy has been admittedly slower than initially anticipated, bogged down by cautious domestic spending stemming from a real estate slump.
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SOURCE: www.jingdaily.com
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