| Published March 30, 2025
Ex-president Duterte is behind bars in The Hague and his daughter is fighting for political survival. But don’t discount a comeback in 2028
Duterte’s Downfall: Will Marcos Face an Election Backlash?
The Philippines is at a political crossroads as the arrest of former President Rodrigo Duterte and a growing rift within the ruling coalition cast uncertainty over the upcoming midterm elections. The alliance between Duterte and current President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., once a powerful force, is now unraveling. This power struggle could shape the country’s political landscape for years to come.
Duterte’s Arrest and Public Reaction
On March 11, 2025, Rodrigo Duterte was arrested in Manila under charges of crimes against humanity for his administration’s controversial war on drugs. His transfer to the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague on his 80th birthday sparked a national outcry. In Davao City, tens of thousands protested his arrest, while in Manila, smaller crowds called for justice for the victims of the anti-drug campaign.
The arrest marks a significant shift in Philippine politics, as Duterte was once a dominant political figure with deep grassroots support. His detention has divided the nation, with his loyalists rallying behind his legacy while critics celebrate what they see as long-overdue accountability.
The Duterte-Marcos Rift
The fallout from Duterte’s arrest has been exacerbated by growing tensions between his daughter, Vice President Sara Duterte, and President Marcos Jr. Once seen as a natural successor to her father’s populist brand of politics, Sara Duterte has become an outspoken critic of Marcos’s leadership. She has accused him of lacking clear policies on key issues such as inflation and food security, further straining their alliance.
This political rift has set the stage for a contentious battle ahead of the May 2025 midterm elections. With Sara Duterte increasingly distancing herself from the administration, the Marcos camp faces challenges in maintaining unity within its ranks.
Midterm Elections: A Test for Marcos
The upcoming elections are expected to be a referendum on Marcos’s leadership. Polls indicate that his allies still have a strong chance of winning a majority of Senate seats. However, the Duterte faction’s growing opposition could shake up these predictions. If pro-Duterte candidates gain traction, it may signal diminishing public confidence in Marcos’s administration.
The midterms will not only determine legislative control but also shape the second half of Marcos’s presidency. A poor showing for his allies could weaken his hold on power, opening the door for political challengers ahead of the 2028 presidential election.
Impeachment Threats and Political Maneuvering
In a sign of escalating tensions, Marcos’s allies are reportedly considering an impeachment move against Vice President Sara Duterte. Two impeachment complaints have already been filed, citing allegations of corruption and betrayal of public trust. Analysts suggest that such a move could be a preemptive strike to neutralize a growing political rival before the midterm elections.
If the impeachment efforts gain momentum, they could further deepen divisions within the government. The outcome of this battle may determine whether the Marcos administration consolidates its power or faces an internal rebellion.
A Nation at a Crossroads
The Philippines is entering a period of political uncertainty. Duterte’s arrest, the Marcos-Duterte divide, and the upcoming elections create a volatile mix that could redefine the country’s leadership. The results of the midterms will serve as a crucial indicator of public sentiment—whether the electorate still backs Marcos’s governance or if they seek an alternative path.
One thing is clear: the nation is watching closely, and the decisions made in the coming months will have lasting consequences for Philippine politics.
SOURCES: SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST –What Duterte’s downfall means for Marcos – and the Philippines
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