
THE ECONOMIST | Published January 30, 2025
WHEN SOUTH KOREA’S president, Yoon Suk Yeol, sent troops streaming into the country’s National Assembly on December 3rd, Lee Jae-myung turned on his livestream. Viewers watched on a shaky smartphone camera feed as the head of the country’s largest opposition force, the Democratic Party (DP), scaled the walls of parliament to help stop the attempt to impose martial law. That Mr Yoon thought he could use force to control modern-day South Korea, a wealthy democracy with a rich civic consciousness, is “just absurd”, says Mr Lee, who lost narrowly to Mr Yoon in presidential elections in 2022.
Two months have now passed since that fateful night. South Korea is still in limbo, with both Mr Yoon and his prime minister suspended from office and the government led by its second acting president. Yet as the cases against Mr Yoon move forward—an impeachment trial in the constitutional court is under way and prosecutors indicted him on January 26th on criminal charges of insurrection—the country is increasingly turning its attention to what comes next. Speaking to The Economist in a conference room inside the same National Assembly building, Mr Lee is confident, composed and quick to smile. He says the urgent task is to “restore constitutional order” and skirts questions about running again. But if a presidential vote were held today, he would be the favourite, with big implications for South Korea’s future direction.
Mr Lee’s ascent is far from guaranteed. He faces serious legal problems of his own. He has been charged with a spate of alleged crimes linked to a development project during his time as mayor of Seongnam, his hometown south of Seoul, and to illegal fund transfers to North Korea. In November he was found guilty of election-law violations for lying during the previous presidential campaign; if the conviction is upheld on appeal, he would be barred from running for several years. He denies wrongdoing and his allies remain confident that the appeals process will buy him enough time to stand in new elections. But the allegations have made him a divisive figure. Ahead of parliamentary elections last year, Mr Lee survived an assassination attempt by a knife-wielding extremist.
South Korea remains deeply polarised. In recent weeks public opinion has swung against the DP, which had opened up a wide lead over Mr Yoon’s People’s Power Party (PPP) in December. Some recent polls even show the PPP neck-and-neck with the DP; Mr Lee narrowly beats potential PPP opponents in hypothetical head-to-head races. Such shifts are a sign that voters, who are frustrated with the ongoing turmoil, once viewed his party as an opposition force but now see it as “the leadership force who needs to take responsibility”, Mr Lee reckons.
Recently Mr Lee has been trying to cast himself as a responsible choice to lead the country’s recovery. His life story is the stuff of Dickensian dreams. His parents cleaned public toilets. Instead of going to secondary school he worked in factories. He educated himself and entered law school, becoming a labour activist and human-rights lawyer who advocated for the working classes. As he rose through the political ranks, he developed a reputation as an effective, if slippery, operator. “He is a problem-solver, rather than an ideological agitator,” says Moon Chung-in, an adviser to Moon Jae-in, the DP president from 2017 to 2022. “For him, interests matter more than values.”
That image is central to his pitch to voters. Mr Lee says his party’s guiding value is “pragmatism”. Once known for progressive policies such as a universal basic income, he has tacked to the centre on economics. He speaks of the importance of “restoring growth” and “growing the pie”. In a press conference on January 23rd that looked like a soft campaign launch, he praised the private sector, highlighted the importance of capital markets and called for a results-oriented politics that moves beyond ideologies and factions.
He sends a similar message on foreign policy. South Korea’s left traditionally favours engagement with North Korea, mistrusts Japan (because of its colonial-era abuses) and, though in favour of the alliance with America, seeks balance between it and other powers such as China and Russia. American officials fret that a new DP administration will mean kowtowing to China and an end to the trilateral co-operation between America, South Korea and Japan that flourished under Mr Yoon. Japanese leaders are bracing for a return to tetchy relations. The first unsuccessful impeachment motion brought against Mr Yoon included a section excoriating him for pursuing a “bizarre Japan-centred foreign policy” and for “antagonising” North Korea, Russia and China.
In meetings with foreign diplomats Mr Lee has tried to dispel those presumptions. The foreign-policy section was stripped from the second, ultimately successful impeachment motion. Mr Lee positions South Korea firmly as a “member of the liberal democratic camp”. Since the previous DP administration, the security environment around South Korea has changed, narrowing the potential room for manoeuvre. The public has soured markedly on China, warmed towards Japan and increasingly tuned out North Korean provocations—shifts that Mr Lee, an acute observer of voter moods, has surely noticed. But even a more pragmatic DP leader will still deviate from South Korea’s current course.
Consider Mr Lee’s remarks on South Korea’s three big interlocking challenges. The most fundamental is relations with North Korea. Previous DP administrations pursued a “sunshine policy” aimed at projecting warmth to foster peace. Last year Kim Jong Un, North Korea’s dictator, declared that the two Koreas were no longer one divided country but two enemy states—in effect slathering on a thick layer of sunscreen and donning dark glasses. Mr Lee acknowledges that relations are “hostile”. But he contends that the balance of deterrence and dialogue has become skewed. South Korea’s own formidable armed forces, its alliance with America and its growing security co-operation with Japan mean that “we are already plenty strong enough militarily to deter North Korea.” What is needed now is to “communicate and engage”, he argues.
The most sensitive foreign-policy issue is Japan. The walls of the room where Mr Lee sits are lined with portraits of past progressive leaders stretching back to Kim Gu, a famed activist who fought for Korean independence from the Japanese empire. But given present-day geopolitical realities, Mr Lee has “no objections” to deepening relations with Japan and continuing the trilateral co-operation. Japan’s defence build-up does not pose a threat to South Korea, as relations are at present “not hostile”, he says. “I used to think that Japan was a country full of very strange people who invaded South Korea, committed horrific human-rights violations, and yet never properly apologised for it,” he recalls. But after visiting the country during his time as a lawyer, “I was shocked by Japanese people’s diligence, sincerity and courtesy” and came to see that the relationship “has ultimately been distorted by politics”.
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SOURCE: www.economist.com
RELATED: With early election possible, who will be S. Korea’s next president?
Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung leads the race with rivals in tight contest

With South Korea potentially heading for an early presidential election, polls show Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung (left) as the frontrunner, while the ruling People Power Party remains locked in a tight race to field a competitive candidate. /Newsis
THE CHOSUN DAILY | Published January 30, 2025
With the possibility of an early presidential election in South Korea gaining momentum after the Lunar New Year holiday, attention is turning to potential candidates.
According to multiple polls, Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung is leading the race, while the ruling People Power Party field remains competitive, with Minister of Employment and Labor Kim Moon-soo, Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon, Daegu Mayor Hong Joon-pyo, former People Power Party leader Han Dong-hoon, and former lawmaker Yoo Seung-min among the top contenders.
A Gallup Korea poll commissioned by the JoongAng Ilbo on Jan. 23-24 surveyed 1,031 adults nationwide through mobile phone interviews with randomly generated numbers. The results showed Lee in first place with 36% support. Among ruling party candidates, Kim Moon-soo led with 16%, followed by Hong Joon-pyo at 10%, Han Dong-hoon at 8%, and Oh Se-hoon at 7%.
A separate poll conducted by Hankook Research for KBS on Jan. 24-26, surveying 1,000 adults via telephone interviews, found Lee leading with 35%, followed by Kim Moon-soo at 14%, Han at 7%, and both Hong and Oh at 5%. A Korea Research International poll for MBC on Jan. 27-28, based on responses from 1,004 adults, also placed Lee at 36%, with Kim at 17%, Oh at 7%, and Hong at 6%.
Lee also showed strength in head-to-head matchups. In the Korea Research-KBS poll, he led Oh 45%-36%, Hong 46%-36%, Kim 47%-35%, and Han 46%-28%. The Gallup Korea-JoongAng Ilbo poll showed tighter margins, with Lee leading Oh 46%-43%, Hong 45%-42%, Kim 47%-38%, Yoo 42%-35%, and Han 46%-34%.

People Power Party emergency committee chairman Kwon Young-se and floor leader Kwon Sung-dong smile while greeting travelers for the Lunar New Year holiday at Seoul Station in Yongsan District, Seoul, on Jan. 24. /Newsis
Meanwhile, the Constitutional Court’s pending decision on the impeachment of President Yoon Suk-yeol is drawing strong public interest. Polls indicate that around 60% of respondents support impeachment. The Korea Research International-MBC survey found 58% in favor and 39% opposed. The Korea Research-KBS poll showed 60% supporting impeachment and 36% against. Similar results emerged in the Gallup Korea-JoongAng Ilbo survey (60% in favor, 35% opposed) and an Ipsos-SBS poll (59% in favor, 37% opposed).
Party support remains tightly contested. In the Korea Research International-MBC poll, the Democratic Party held a slight edge at 44% over the People Power Party’s 41%, with the newly formed Rebuilding Korea Party at 4%.
The Gallup Korea-JoongAng Ilbo poll found the People Power Party at 41% and the Democratic Party at 40%, within the margin of error.
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SOURCE: www.chosun.com
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