A number of hostile forces would like to see Republicans lose the midterm elections.
Reported by:
Cherry Meigh Timbol
News Content Editor
Published November 2, 2026
Voters go to the polls Tuesday for all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats.
Forecasters generally give Democrats an advantage in the House, while the Senate is more competitive. Historically, the president’s party has lost an average of 27 House seats and three Senate seats in midterms from 1934 to 2022.
Democrats. As the opposition party, Democrats are openly campaigning to win control of one or both chambers.
That is ordinary partisan competition, and Republicans are likewise seeking to retain their majorities.
China, Iran and Russia. A July analysis by the Brennan Center, a left-leaning policy institute, concluded that China, Iran and Russia are poised to attempt to influence the 2026 midterms. Evidence from 2022 suggests such efforts don’t target one party. A declassified intelligence assessment found that China tacitly approved efforts to influence a handful of races involving members of both parties, and that there was no sign of cyberattacks to tamper with ballot counting. The same review found that Russia sought to denigrate the Democratic Party, while Iran lent support to left-leaning politicians through fake social media accounts.
For 2026, the Brennan Center said it is likely Iran will use all available tools to undermine trust in the elections. The National Security Journal, citing officials, reported that Iran is seeking ways to intervene by hiring insiders within the electoral system and building cyber capabilities. Analysts at the Council on Foreign Relations noted that the Trump administration has scaled back efforts to limit foreign disinformation even as these campaigns continue.
Mexican cartels. The U.S. Treasury has said cartels are increasingly using illicit profits to make cash payments to Mexican political campaigns. That concerns Mexican elections. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has said little evidence has emerged to substantiate claims of cartels interfering with elections. Separately, a 2023 paper from the Texas Public Policy Foundation alleged that Mexican government officials engage in rhetoric aimed at influencing U.S. elections. The reporting reviewed did not identify evidence of a cartel effort to affect the outcome of the U.S. midterms.
“Globalists.” The term has no agreed definition and is used differently across political commentary. The sources reviewed did not document a coordinated effort by any such group to influence the midterms.
Bottom line. Foreign influence operations by China, Iran and Russia are well documented in past cycles and expected again. The evidence does not show these efforts aim specifically at defeating Republicans, and the evidence for cartels and “globalists” is much thinner.
