Marine Le Pen Will Come to Power, According to Nicolas Sarkozy

Nicolas Sarkozy/Image: Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license./Author: Jacques Paquier

Published September 9, 2025

Former French President Nicolas Sarkozy recently declared that Marine Le Pen and her National Rally (RN) party are poised to assume power in France. Speaking in Brussels on September 2, Sarkozy criticized Prime Minister François Bayrou’s tenure, labeling him as “unreliable and talentless,” and predicted Bayrou’s imminent departure. He further suggested that President Macron’s administration would continue to struggle, leading to the eventual dissolution of the National Assembly. Sarkozy emphasized that the RN’s ascent to power, despite legal challenges, now appears inevitable. He also contested the notion that the RN is “far-right,” arguing that a party with significant parliamentary representation cannot be deemed undemocratic.

This development comes amid a broader political crisis in France. Prime Minister Bayrou lost a confidence vote in the National Assembly on September 8, leading to his resignation. The vote was influenced by public opposition to his proposed austerity measures, including €43.8 billion in spending cuts and tax increases. With no party holding a majority, Macron faces challenges in appointing a new prime minister, and opposition leaders, including Le Pen, are calling for new elections.

Le Pen’s path to power is complicated by a recent legal setback. In March 2025, she was convicted of embezzling EU funds and sentenced to four years in prison, two of which are under electronic tagging. Additionally, she was fined €100,000 and banned from holding public office until 2030, effectively barring her from the 2027 presidential election. Despite appealing the decision, the conviction has cast a shadow over her political future.

Nevertheless, Sarkozy’s endorsement underscores the RN’s growing influence in French politics. His remarks suggest a shift in the political landscape, with the RN increasingly seen as a legitimate force in French governance.

👥 Public/Political Reactions

🇫🇷 Public Sentiment

1. Support for Le Pen

   • Large rallies and demonstrations across France reflect strong public support for Le Pen and the National Rally.

   • Many attendees view her legal conviction as politically motivated, framing her as a victim of an elite-dominated system that seeks to suppress nationalist voices.

2. Grassroots Mobilization

   • Right-leaning citizens have become increasingly engaged, organizing rallies, online campaigns, and local events to advocate for nationalist policies.

   • Public sentiment emphasizes sovereignty, law and order, and the protection of French cultural and economic interests.

🗳️ Political Reactions

1. Criticism of Centrist Leadership

   • Former President Nicolas Sarkozy and other right-leaning figures have publicly criticized Prime Minister Bayrou’s resignation and Macron’s weakened coalition, pointing to ineffective governance and a failure to address citizens’ concerns.

   • Many conservatives see the political elite as out of touch, reinforcing support for the RN as an alternative.

2. Judicial Concerns

   • Right-leaning politicians argue that Le Pen’s conviction underscores potential bias within the judicial system against nationalist leaders.

   • Calls for judicial transparency and reform are rising, with conservatives emphasizing the need to protect democratic fairness and prevent politicized prosecutions.

3. Encouragement of Electoral Participation

   • Le Pen’s base and allied right-leaning parties are being mobilized to participate actively in upcoming local and national elections.

   • The objective is to increase RN representation in parliament and local councils, influencing policymaking even before Le Pen is legally allowed to run for office again.

⚠️ Resulting Effects Marine Le Pen and the National Rally

🏛️ Political Effects

1. Empowerment of the National Rally

   • Despite her legal setback, Le Pen’s RN has emerged stronger, consolidating support among voters dissatisfied with centrist and left-wing policies.

   • Sarkozy’s endorsement underscores the growing legitimacy of the RN as a mainstream political player capable of influencing national policy.

2. Weakening of Centrist and Left-Wing Leadership

   • The resignation of Prime Minister Bayrou and Macron’s difficulties in forming a stable government reflect the fragility of the current establishment.

   • Public frustration with ineffective governance bolsters support for nationalist, right-leaning solutions and the RN’s policy proposals.

🌐 Societal Effects

1. Increased Civic Engagement Among Right-Leaning Voters

   • Pro-Le Pen rallies and demonstrations indicate a mobilized conservative base that is actively voicing opposition to what they perceive as biased legal and political systems.

   • This engagement strengthens grassroots movements that advocate for stricter immigration policies, national sovereignty, and economic protectionism.

2. Polarization with Left-Wing Movements

   • The legal actions against Le Pen have intensified ideological divisions, reinforcing the belief among right-leaning citizens that the political elite and judicial system unfairly target nationalist voices.

   • This polarization may lead to a clearer ideological distinction, giving conservative voters a more unified platform to advance their policies.

⚖️ Institutional Effects

1. Questioning Judicial Impartiality

   • Right-leaning observers argue that Le Pen’s conviction highlights potential biases within the judiciary against nationalist or conservative figures.

   • The case has triggered calls for reforms to ensure fairness and accountability, with conservatives advocating for a system that treats all political actors equally, regardless of ideology.

2. Strengthening Political Accountability

   • The public scrutiny of government and judicial decisions reinforces the notion that leaders and institutions must remain answerable to citizens.

   • Conservative supporters view this as a positive step toward limiting overreach and promoting transparency in governance.

🔮 Future Outlook

🏛️ Political Opportunities

1. RN as a Legitimate Political Force

   • Despite legal setbacks, Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) continues to attract significant support, signaling the endurance of nationalist and patriotic sentiment among the French electorate.

   • Sarkozy’s remarks that RN is likely to come to power emphasize that mainstream political elites now recognize the party’s influence.

2. Weakness of Centrist Government

   • Macron’s coalition and Prime Minister Bayrou’s resignation illustrate the fragility of centrist governance.

   • Policy paralysis and public dissatisfaction create openings for the RN to consolidate influence in parliament and local governments, shaping future policy from a patriotic, nationalist perspective.

🌐 Domestic and International Implications

1. Defending National Sovereignty

   • RN’s platform emphasizes the protection of French sovereignty, stricter immigration controls, and prioritization of domestic interests.

   • A rise in RN influence could shift France’s policies toward greater national self-determination and reduced dependency on EU directives.

2. Public Sentiment as a Political Force

   • Large-scale protests and rallies supporting Le Pen indicate strong grassroots backing, which may pressure the establishment to acknowledge nationalist perspectives in future legislation.

   • Popular support could also influence upcoming local and national elections, giving the RN leverage to enact conservative reforms.

⚖️ Judicial and Institutional Considerations

1. Legal Hurdles vs. Political Mandate

   • While Le Pen is barred from office until 2030, a right-leaning analysis suggests her party can still enact substantial influence through parliamentary seats and allied politicians.

   • Appeals and ongoing legal debates may further energize her base, framing the judicial system as biased against conservative voices.

2. Strengthening Democratic Accountability

   • From this viewpoint, challenging the legal and institutional elite is part of a broader effort to restore accountability, transparency, and representation for patriotic, law-abiding citizens.

🔮 Strategic Outlook

• Short Term (1–2 years): Expect continued public demonstrations, consolidation of the RN base, and political maneuvering aimed at countering centrist policies.

• Medium Term (3–5 years): RN could expand influence in legislative and local offices, shaping policy to reflect nationalist priorities.

• Long Term (Post-2030): Once legal barriers lift, the RN or its successors could participate directly in executive politics, potentially redefining French governance along patriotic and conservative lines.

🧩 Bottom Line: Marine Le Pen and the Shifting French Political Landscape

The political saga surrounding Marine Le Pen, the National Rally (RN), and the French government underscores a nation at a crossroads. Despite legal barriers—including her conviction and ban from office until 2030—Le Pen’s influence remains substantial, bolstered by a loyal base and growing parliamentary presence. Former President Nicolas Sarkozy’s prediction of her eventual rise to power highlights the enduring strength of her movement, even amid controversy.

France’s political landscape is marked by instability, social polarization, and a fragmented centrist government. The resignation of Prime Minister François Bayrou and the inability of Macron’s coalition to secure a majority reflect broader challenges in governance, leaving space for opposition parties like the RN to capitalize on public dissatisfaction.

The situation also raises critical questions about the intersection of law, politics, and democratic norms. Debates over judicial fairness, political accountability, and transparency will continue to shape both public perception and institutional reforms in the coming years.

Looking ahead, the trajectory of French politics will depend on a delicate balance: the response of the government to public unrest, the judiciary’s handling of appeals, and the RN’s ability to expand its influence despite legal constraints. While uncertainty dominates the short term, one clear trend is the increasing prominence of populist and nationalist movements, signaling a potential realignment of France’s political order over the next decade.

In essence, Marine Le Pen’s story is not just about an individual politician; it reflects the broader tensions and evolving dynamics of French democracy, where legal challenges, public sentiment, and political ambition intersect to shape the nation’s future.

SOURCES: THE GATEWAY PUNDIT – Marine Le Pen Will Come to Power, According to Nicolas Sarkozy

THE TIMES – Marine Le Pen Will Come to Power, According to Nicolas Sarkozy