General Jack Keane, the former Vice Chief of Staff to the US Army, has revealed why he believes that Iran won’t cut a peace deal within President Trump’s two-week deadline.
| Published June 20, 2025
As tensions escalate between Israel, the U.S., and Iran, one chilling question hangs over diplomatic efforts: why won’t Ayatollah Ali Khamenei pursue peace? According to retired four-star General Jack Keane, the answer is stark—Iran’s Supreme Leader isn’t afraid of war. In fact, he believes the Islamic Republic can survive a direct military strike, absorb the damage, and rebuild both its nuclear program and its regional influence. This confidence, Keane warns, is why no amount of pressure, threats, or ultimatums has worked—and why the world may be headed for a deeper conflict.
Retired four‑star General Jack Keane, speaking on Fox & Friends, delivered a stark warning:
“The Ayatollah…believes they can absorb the attack, survive it, recover it, and then rebuild.”
He explained that Khamenei is confident Iran can withstand any U.S. or Israeli strikes and then rebuild its nuclear arsenal—meaning there’s no incentive to negotiate or back down.
🔥 Confidence in Resilience
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Rebuilding faith: Keane stresses that Iran’s leadership sees military strikes as manageable setbacks, not existential threats. They believe Iran can rebuild—nuclear enrichment included .
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Strategic cushion: Iran’s strategy hinges on strategic depth—leverage redundancy and infrastructure resilience to outlast attacks.
⚠️ Ultimatums Are Losing Their Grip
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Two‑week deadline? Useless. Trump’s “final ultimatum,” Keane asserts, is unlikely to prompt compliance. Khamenei’s willingness to absorb strikes and rebuild removes pressure to negotiate .
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Escalation dynamics: Instead of deterrence, Israel and the U.S. may force Iran deeper into defiance—putting them at a critical juncture.
🌐 Global Strategic Ripple Effects
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Incentive misalignment: If Iran can endure and rebuild, military pressure becomes a blunt tool with limited impact on nuclear decisions.
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Need for fresh leverage: Keane’s insight spotlights the need for new strategies—economic, diplomatic, or covert—to shift Iran’s cost-benefit calculus.
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Escalation dilemma: Repeated strikes with no diplomatic opening risk fueling cycles of retaliation and broader regional conflict.
Implications
1. Military Deterrence Is Losing Its Edge
If Iran’s leadership genuinely believes it can absorb an Israeli or U.S. strike and bounce back, then traditional deterrence models fail—raising the likelihood of prolonged confrontation rather than quick resolution.
2. Nuclear Escalation Risk Increases
Iran’s refusal to negotiate, combined with its determination to rebuild its nuclear program, increases the risk of a full nuclear breakout, which could trigger a regional arms race or preemptive strikes from Israel or other actors.
3. Diplomatic Pressure Has Limited Leverage
If the regime views survival and recovery as assured, diplomatic offers and economic sanctions may no longer be sufficient to change its behavior—pushing the West toward more drastic measures.
4. Potential for Prolonged Regional War
Keane’s warning suggests the Ayatollah is prepared for a war of attrition, which could drag neighboring countries, proxy groups, and global powers into a drawn-out conflict with high civilian and economic costs.
5. Urgency for New Strategic Approaches
With military and economic tools proving ineffective, the U.S. and allies may need to explore unconventional pressure points—cyber, covert, or internal destabilization efforts—to shift Iran’s calculus.
Overall Takeaway:
General Jack Keane’s chilling insight reveals why diplomacy and threats may fall flat with Iran: Ayatollah Khamenei is playing the long game. Confident in Iran’s ability to endure attacks and rebuild, he sees no reason to compromise. This mindset fundamentally alters the dynamics of deterrence—suggesting that unless the U.S. and its allies develop new, more effective pressure strategies, the path ahead may lead not to peace, but to prolonged and dangerous escalation.
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