From the northeast and from the southwest: two Russian pincer moves mean to encircle Pokrovsk.
Published July 19, 2025
Russian forces took control of Popov Yar in Donetsk region, Degtyarne in Kharkov region and Kamenske in Zaporizhzhia region, according to Defense Ministry
Russia has intensified its military campaign in Eastern Ukraine, capturing more than a dozen settlements in just the past week — signaling a significant shift in momentum on the frontlines. The latest advances, centered around Donetsk and northern Kharkiv, mark one of the fastest territorial gains for Russian forces since early 2022.
A Swift Push Through Donetsk
According to Russian military sources and confirmed by state and independent media, Russian troops seized at least 12 villages and settlements throughout Eastern Donetsk Oblast this week. The gains include towns situated along key supply lines and natural barriers that once bolstered Ukraine’s defensive network.
A report from The Gateway Pundit emphasized that these newly occupied areas put Russian artillery and drone operators within striking distance of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk — two heavily fortified Ukrainian strongholds. Russian Ministry of Defense officials claimed that the operation was “part of a broader strategic encirclement of Ukrainian brigades entrenched in the Donbas.”
Meanwhile, the pro-Kremlin RIA Novosti reported that Russian flags were raised over Andriivka and Nova Mykolaivka in Donetsk, with footage showing abandoned Ukrainian equipment and destroyed fortifications. Analysts note that many of these areas had been under Ukrainian control for nearly two years.
Northern Pressure Near Kupiansk and Borova
Simultaneously, Russian forces have made smaller but still significant advances in the north, particularly around Kharkiv Oblast. A July 18 report by Meduza revealed that Russia has nearly encircled the town of Borova and advanced closer to Kupiansk — a logistical hub critical for resupplying Ukrainian forces in the east.
Satellite imagery and Ukrainian military briefings suggest that Russia has pushed forward from the direction of Svatove, aiming to link the Luhansk and Kharkiv fronts. Ukraine’s General Staff acknowledged “difficult fighting” in the forests around Torske and Nevske, and Ukrainian soldiers interviewed described dwindling ammunition and manpower.
One Ukrainian commander, speaking anonymously to Meduza, admitted that “the line is bending but not broken.” However, the growing pressure may force Ukraine to pull back from exposed positions to prevent encirclement — a move that could accelerate Russian control over the region.
Russia’s Momentum and Ukraine’s Dilemma
As of July 18, Anadolu Agency reported Russia had also claimed control over the settlements of Staromaiorske, Urozhaine, and Pryiutne — all located along the southern edge of Donetsk Oblast. These villages had previously been among Ukraine’s few successful recaptures during the 2023 counteroffensive.
Military analysts suggest that the combination of slow Western aid deliveries, ammunition shortages, and Russian numerical superiority has shifted the battlefield dynamic in Russia’s favor. Some fear that without an immediate infusion of foreign military support, Ukraine may be forced into a broad tactical retreat across the eastern front.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian officials maintain that they are reinforcing key defensive lines and continue to launch localized counterattacks to stall Russia’s advance. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called on Western allies for additional air defense systems and long-range weapons, warning that “the cost of delay is measured in lives and lost cities.”
The Geranium drone attacks in Kiev were paused while US envoy Kellog was there.
Resulting Effects of Russia’s Territorial Gains in Donetsk and Kharkiv (Mid-July 2025)
1. Strategic Advantage for Russia
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Increased Operational Depth: By capturing more than a dozen settlements in Eastern Donetsk and advancing toward Kupiansk and Borova in Kharkiv, Russian forces have expanded their operational reach. This allows them to:
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Position artillery and drones closer to major Ukrainian defensive hubs like Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.
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Threaten Ukrainian supply lines between Kharkiv and the Donbas.
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Improved Logistics and Momentum: The contiguous gains help consolidate Russian logistics, making it easier to sustain offensive operations and potentially set the stage for larger encirclements of Ukrainian brigades.
2. Ukrainian Military Strain
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Pressure on Manpower and Supplies: Ukrainian forces are reportedly facing shortages of ammunition and reserves. Troops in both Donetsk and Kharkiv have described stretched lines and fatigue after months of static defense with limited reinforcements.
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Risk of Tactical Withdrawals: With the loss of previously liberated towns like Urozhaine and Staromaiorske, Ukraine may need to regroup and pull back from overextended positions to avoid encirclement or annihilation of frontline units.
3. Psychological and Political Impact
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Boost to Russian Morale and Propaganda: Moscow is portraying these gains as a vindication of its long-term strategy. Russian state media is celebrating the advances as signs of Ukrainian weakness and Western fatigue.
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Ukrainian Civilian Anxiety: Civilians in frontline areas — especially in towns like Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, and Kupiansk — are bracing for renewed shelling or potential occupation. Evacuations may increase, and public confidence in eventual victory could erode.
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Ukrainian Government Under Pressure: The Zelenskyy administration is facing growing pressure to secure more foreign aid, particularly long-range weapons and air defense systems, amid calls from military leadership for faster logistics and troop rotations.
4. Geopolitical Ramifications
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Renewed Calls for Western Aid: Ukraine’s leaders are urgently appealing to NATO and EU countries to expedite arms deliveries, warning that delays have a direct impact on battlefield outcomes.
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Western Political Friction: The slow pace of military support — especially from key NATO states tied up in domestic politics — has sparked criticism. Lawmakers in both Europe and the U.S. are under scrutiny for failing to deliver on promises, as Ukraine loses ground.
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Russian Leverage in Future Negotiations: If the current trajectory continues, Russia could enter any future negotiations with greater leverage, holding more territory and dictating harsher terms.
5. Shift in War Trajectory
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Possible Turning Point: Military analysts are beginning to treat the mid-2025 Russian advance as a potential inflection point in the war. If Ukrainian defenses collapse along key axes, especially near Kupiansk or Kramatorsk, it could trigger a broader Ukrainian retreat from the Donbas.
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Diminishing Impact of 2023 Counteroffensive: The fall of reclaimed towns like Staromaiorske and Urozhaine effectively erases some of the gains made during Ukraine’s 2023 counteroffensive, adding symbolic weight to the current Russian push.
Bottom Line:
Russia’s sweeping advances across Eastern Donetsk and Northern Kharkiv in mid-July 2025 represent a critical juncture in the war. With over a dozen settlements falling under Russian control in a matter of days, Ukraine now faces one of its most challenging moments since the full-scale invasion began. The pressure on Ukraine’s frontline forces — strained by ammunition shortages and lagging Western aid — is mounting as Russian troops push closer to major urban centers and vital supply lines.
These developments signal not just tactical success for Moscow, but also growing strategic leverage. The recapture of towns once celebrated as victories in Ukraine’s 2023 counteroffensive now underscores how quickly the battlefield can shift — and how fragile hard-won gains can be without sustained international support.
As Russia continues to tighten the noose in key regions, the war risks entering a new and more dangerous phase — one where Ukrainian defensive lines may begin to buckle under continuous assault. For Ukraine, the path forward now hinges not only on the resilience of its armed forces but also on the speed and seriousness of international support. The outcome of this intensified eastern campaign could reshape not just the map, but the long-term balance of power in the conflict.
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