Would military strikes kill Iran’s nuclear programme? Probably not

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei visits the Iranian centrifuges in Tehran, Iran June 11, 2023. Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights

| Published April 16, 2025

As tensions escalate over Iran’s advancing nuclear program, discussions around potential military interventions by the United States or Israel have intensified. However, experts caution that such strikes may offer only short-term delays while potentially exacerbating long-term proliferation risks.​

Limited Impact of Military Strikes

Recent analyses indicate that even with advanced weaponry, including the U.S.’s B-2 stealth bombers equipped with Massive Ordnance Penetrators, military strikes are unlikely to dismantle Iran’s nuclear capabilities permanently. Facilities like Natanz and Fordow are deeply fortified, making them challenging targets. Moreover, the technical knowledge and infrastructure supporting Iran’s nuclear program are resilient and can be reconstructed, suggesting that any damage inflicted would be temporary.

Iranian missiles are displayed at the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Aerospace Force Museum in Tehran, Iran, November 15, 2024. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia press Agency) via REUTERS/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights

Potential for Escalation

Beyond the immediate physical impact, military action carries significant geopolitical risks. An attack could prompt Iran to expel international nuclear inspectors, withdraw from the Non-Proliferation Treaty, and accelerate its nuclear ambitions clandestinely. Such a scenario mirrors North Korea’s trajectory, where external pressures led to rapid weaponization efforts. ​

Diplomatic Efforts and Challenges

While military options are being considered, diplomatic avenues remain active. President Donald Trump has emphasized the importance of negotiations, with recent talks in Oman and planned discussions in Rome aiming to revive or redesign the 2015 nuclear agreement. However, progress has been limited, and Iran maintains that its nuclear activities are for peaceful purposes.

Conclusion

The consensus among experts is clear: military strikes may offer a fleeting hindrance to Iran’s nuclear program but are unlikely to achieve lasting results. Instead, such actions risk escalating tensions and undermining international non-proliferation efforts. A sustainable resolution likely lies in persistent diplomatic engagement and comprehensive agreements that address the concerns of all stakeholders.

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SOURCES: REUTERS – Would military strikes kill Iran’s nuclear programme? Probably not

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